IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/wdevel/v140y2021ics0305750x20304459.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Household response to an extreme shock: Evidence on the immediate impact of the Covid-19 lockdown on economic outcomes and well-being in rural Uganda

Author

Listed:
  • Mahmud, Mahreen
  • Riley, Emma

Abstract

We provide evidence on the economic and well-being impact of the Covid-19 lockdown on a sample of households in rural Uganda. Our sample consists of 1,277 households randomly drawn from 114 rural villages in western Uganda and surveyed in-person in early March 2020, just before the lockdown. We followed up with this sample in May 2020, reaching over 85% of them by phone. We find a large decline of 60% in household non-farm income due to household enterprise profits and labour income being almost wiped-out post the lockdown. Households respond to this loss of income in three key ways. One, there is a 40% decrease in food expenditure per adult equivalent. Two, they use up nearly 50% of their savings and borrow more, but have not yet liquidated their fixed assets or sold livestock. Three, they increase total household labour supply to household farm and livestock, more than making up for the decline in supply to enterprises and labour outside the household. We find a decrease in well-being as a result of this: there is an increase in the likelihood of missing a meal, a decline in reported satisfaction with quality of life, a higher likelihood of having a major argument with their spouse and an increase in perceived frequency of intimate partner violence against women in the village. The negative effects of the lockdown are greater for households that were wealthier at baseline, since these households were more reliant on enterprise and salaried income. These results were one of the first to show a large negative impact of the lockdown for a rural population. Our findings are important to policy makers in Uganda and other developing countries as they suggest income and consumption support is needed for rural households.

Suggested Citation

  • Mahmud, Mahreen & Riley, Emma, 2021. "Household response to an extreme shock: Evidence on the immediate impact of the Covid-19 lockdown on economic outcomes and well-being in rural Uganda," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:140:y:2021:i:c:s0305750x20304459
    DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105318
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X20304459
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105318?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lisa Cameron & Manisha Shah, 2015. "Risk-Taking Behavior in the Wake of Natural Disasters," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 50(2), pages 484-515.
    2. Harold Alderman & John Hoddinott & Bill Kinsey, 2006. "Long term consequences of early childhood malnutrition," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(3), pages 450-474, July.
    3. Pierre‐André Chiappori & Krislert Samphantharak & Sam Schulhofer‐Wohl & Robert M. Townsend, 2014. "Heterogeneity and risk sharing in village economies," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 5, pages 1-27, March.
    4. Christopher Blattman & Julian C. Jamison & Margaret Sheridan, 2017. "Reducing Crime and Violence: Experimental Evidence from Cognitive Behavioral Therapy in Liberia," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(4), pages 1165-1206, April.
    5. Fafchamps, Marcel & Udry, Christopher & Czukas, Katherine, 1998. "Drought and saving in West Africa: are livestock a buffer stock?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 273-305, April.
    6. Deaton, Angus, 1991. "Saving and Liquidity Constraints," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(5), pages 1221-1248, September.
    7. Steven Stillman & Duncan Thomas, 2008. "Nutritional Status During an Economic Crisis: Evidence from Russia," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(531), pages 1385-1417, August.
    8. Duncan Thomas & Elizabeth Frankenberg, 2007. "Household Responses to the Financial Crisis in Indonesia: Longitudinal Evidence on Poverty, Resources, and Well-Being," NBER Chapters, in: Globalization and Poverty, pages 517-560, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Dean Yang, 2008. "International Migration, Remittances and Household Investment: Evidence from Philippine Migrants’ Exchange Rate Shocks," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(528), pages 591-630, April.
    10. Frankenberg, E. & Thomas, D. & Beegle, K., 1999. "The Real Costs of Indonesia's Economic Crisis: Preliminary Findings from the Indonesia Family Life Surveys," Papers 99-04, RAND - Labor and Population Program.
    11. Elizabeth Frankenberg & James P. Smith & Duncan Thomas, 2003. "Economic Shocks, Wealth, and Welfare," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 38(2).
    12. Del Ninno, Carlo & Dorosh, Paul A. & Smith, Lisa C., 2003. "Public Policy, Markets and Household Coping Strategies in Bangladesh: Avoiding a Food Security Crisis Following the 1998 Floods," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 1221-1238, July.
    13. Saravana Ravindran & Manisha Shah, 2020. "Unintended Consequences of Lockdowns: COVID-19 and the Shadow Pandemic," NBER Working Papers 27562, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Stefan Dercon & Catherine Porter, 2014. "Live Aid Revisited: Long-Term Impacts Of The 1984 Ethiopian Famine On Children," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(4), pages 927-948, August.
    15. Townsend, Robert M, 1994. "Risk and Insurance in Village India," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(3), pages 539-591, May.
    16. Amber Peterman & Alina Potts & Megan O'Donnell & Kelly Thompson & Niyati Shah & Sabine Oertelt-Prigione & Nicole van Gelder, 2020. "Pandemics and Violence Against Women and Children," Working Papers 528, Center for Global Development.
    17. Christopher Udry, 1994. "Risk and Insurance in a Rural Credit Market: An Empirical Investigation in Northern Nigeria," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(3), pages 495-526.
    18. William Jack & Tavneet Suri, 2014. "Risk Sharing and Transactions Costs: Evidence from Kenya's Mobile Money Revolution," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(1), pages 183-223, January.
    19. Fafchamps, Marcel & Lund, Susan, 2003. "Risk-sharing networks in rural Philippines," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 261-287, August.
    20. Carter, Michael R. & Lybbert, Travis J., 2012. "Consumption versus asset smoothing: testing the implications of poverty trap theory in Burkina Faso," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 255-264.
    21. Peter R. Fallon & Robert E. B. Lucas, 2002. "The Impact of Financial Crises on Labor Markets, Household Incomes, and Poverty: A Review of Evidence," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 17(1), pages 21-45.
    22. McKenzie, David J., 2003. "How do Households Cope with Aggregate Shocks? Evidence from the Mexican Peso Crisis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 1179-1199, July.
    23. Dasgupta, Partha & Ray, Debraj, 1986. "Inequality as a Determinant of Malnutrition and Unemployment: Theory," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 96(384), pages 1011-1034, December.
    24. Blumenstock, Joshua E. & Eagle, Nathan & Fafchamps, Marcel, 2016. "Airtime transfers and mobile communications: Evidence in the aftermath of natural disasters," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 157-181.
    25. Stefan Dercon, 2002. "Income Risk, Coping Strategies, and Safety Nets," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 17(2), pages 141-166, September.
    26. Angus Deaton & Salman Zaidi, 2002. "Guidelines for Constructing Consumption Aggregates for Welfare Analysis," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 14101, April.
    27. Rosenzweig, Mark R, 1988. "Risk, Implicit Contracts and the Family in Rural Areas of Low-income Countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(393), pages 1148-1170, December.
    28. Wendy Janssens & Menno Pradhan & Richard de Groot & Estelle Sidze & Hermann Donfouet & Amanuel Abajobir, 2020. "The short-term economic effects of COVID-19 and risk-coping strategies of low-income households in Kenya: A rapid analysis using weekly financial household data," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 20-040/V, Tinbergen Institute.
    29. Ana Maria Buller & Amber Peterman & Meghna Ranganathan & Alexandra Bleile & Melissa Hidrobo & Lori Heise, 2018. "A Mixed-Method Review of Cash Transfers and Intimate Partner Violence in Low- and Middle-Income Countries," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 33(2), pages 218-258.
    30. Kazianga, Harounan & Udry, Christopher, 2006. "Consumption smoothing? Livestock, insurance and drought in rural Burkina Faso," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 413-446, April.
    31. Zimmerman, Frederick J. & Carter, Michael R., 2003. "Asset smoothing, consumption smoothing and the reproduction of inequality under risk and subsistence constraints," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 233-260, August.
    32. Said, Farah & Afzal, Uzma & Turner, Ginger, 2015. "Risk taking and risk learning after a rare event: Evidence from a field experiment in Pakistan," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 167-183.
    33. McKenzie, David J, 2006. "The Consumer Response to the Mexican Peso Crisis," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 55(1), pages 139-172, October.
    34. Jonathan Morduch, 1995. "Income Smoothing and Consumption Smoothing," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 103-114, Summer.
    35. HwaJung Choi, 2007. "Are Remittances Insurance? Evidence from Rainfall Shocks in the Philippines," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 21(2), pages 219-248, May.
    36. Kashif Malik & Muhammad Meki & Jonathan Morduch & Timothy Ogden & Simon Quinn & Farah Said, 2020. "COVID-19 and the future of microfinance: evidence and insights from Pakistan," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(Supplemen), pages 138-168.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Soontaree Suratana & Ratipark Tamornpark & Tawatchai Apidechkul & Peeradone Srichan & Thanatchaporn Mulikaburt & Pilasinee Wongnuch & Siwarak Kitchanapaibul & Fartima Yeemard & Anusorn Udplong, 2021. "Impacts of and survival adaptations to the COVID-19 pandemic among the hill tribe population of northern Thailand: A qualitative study," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(6), pages 1-16, June.
    2. Dhingra, Swati & Machin, Stephen, 2020. "The Crisis and Job Guarantees in Urban India," IZA Discussion Papers 13760, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Anne E. Fitzpatrick & Sabrin A. Beg & Laura C. Derksen & Anne Karing & Jason T. Kerwin & Adrienne Lucas & Natalia Ordaz Reynoso & Munir Squires, 2021. "Health Knowledge and Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Africa," NBER Working Papers 28316, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Richard P. Fisher & Allan Lewandowski & Tesfayohanes W. Yacob & Barbara J. Ward & Lauren M. Hafford & Ryan B. Mahoney & Cori J. Oversby & Dragan Mejic & Dana H. Hauschulz & R. Scott Summers & Karl G. , 2021. "Solar Thermal Processing to Disinfect Human Waste," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 13(9), pages 1-16, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Riley, Emma, 2018. "Mobile money and risk sharing against village shocks," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 43-58.
    2. Baborska, Renata & Hernandez-Hernandez, Emilio & Magrini, Emiliano & Morales-Opazo, Cristian, 2018. "The impact of financial inclusion on rural food security experience: a perspective from low-and middle-income countries," MPRA Paper 89249, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Molina Millán, Teresa, 2015. "Regional Migration, Insurance and Economic Shocks: Evidence from Nicaragua," IZA Discussion Papers 9494, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Islam, Asad & Nguyen, Chau, 2018. "Do networks matter after a natural disaster? A study of resource sharing within an informal network after Cyclone Aila," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 249-268.
    5. Yasuyuki Sawada, 2007. "The impact of natural and manmade disasters on household welfare," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 37(s1), pages 59-73, December.
    6. Sawada, Yasuyuki & Takasaki, Yoshito, 2017. "Natural Disaster, Poverty, and Development: An Introduction," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 2-15.
    7. Kazianga, Harounan & Wahhaj, Zaki, 2020. "Will urban migrants formally insure their rural relatives? Family networks and rainfall index insurance in Burkina Faso," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    8. Carter, Michael R. & Lybbert, Travis J., 2012. "Consumption versus asset smoothing: testing the implications of poverty trap theory in Burkina Faso," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 255-264.
    9. Dupas, Pascaline & Robinson, Jonathan, 2012. "The (hidden) costs of political instability: Evidence from Kenya's 2007 election crisis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 314-329.
    10. Barnett, Barry J. & Barrett, Christopher B. & Skees, Jerry R., 2008. "Poverty Traps and Index-Based Risk Transfer Products," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 1766-1785, October.
    11. Dubois, Pierre, 2002. "Consommation, partage de risque et assurance informelle : développements théoriques et tests empiriques récents," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 78(1), pages 115-149, Mars.
    12. Carol Newman & Finn Tarp, 2018. "Risk and investment: Evidence from rural Vietnam," WIDER Working Paper Series 122, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    13. Kailash Chandra Pradhan & Shrabani Mukherjee, 2018. "Covariate and Idiosyncratic Shocks and Coping Strategies for Poor and Non-poor Rural Households in India," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 16(1), pages 101-127, March.
    14. Jeffrey A. Flory, 2011. "Micro-Savings & Informal Insurance in Villages: How Financial Deepening Affects Safety Nets of the Poor, A Natural Field Experiment," Working Papers 2011-008, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    15. Catia Batista & Pedro C. Vicente, 2018. "Is mobile money changing rural Africa? Evidence from a field experiment," NOVAFRICA Working Paper Series wp1805, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Nova School of Business and Economics, NOVAFRICA.
    16. Fafchamps, Marcel, 2010. "Vulnerability, risk management and agricultural development," African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, African Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 5(1), pages 1-18, September.
    17. Gaurav, Sarthak, 2015. "Are Rainfed Agricultural Households Insured? Evidence from Five Villages in Vidarbha, India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 719-736.
    18. DELPIERRE Matthieu & VERHEYDEN Bertrand & WEYNANTS Stéphanie, 2011. "On the interaction between risk-taking and risk-sharing under farm household wealth heterogeneity," LISER Working Paper Series 2011-35, LISER.
    19. Flory, Jeffrey A., 2012. "Formal Savings Spillovers on Microenterprise Growth and Production Decisions Among Non-Savers in Villages: Evidence from a Field Experiment," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 125013, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    20. Belhaj, Mohamed & Deroïan, Frédéric, 2012. "Risk taking under heterogenous revenue sharing," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 192-202.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:140:y:2021:i:c:s0305750x20304459. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/worlddev .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/worlddev .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.