IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/deveco/v153y2021ics0304387821001140.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Texts don’t nudge: An adaptive trial to prevent the spread of COVID-19 in India

Author

Listed:
  • Bahety, Girija
  • Bauhoff, Sebastian
  • Patel, Dev
  • Potter, James

Abstract

We conduct an adaptive randomized controlled trial to evaluate the impact of a SMS-based information campaign on the adoption of social distancing and handwashing in rural Bihar, India, six months into the COVID-19 pandemic. We test 10 arms that vary in delivery timing and message framing, changing content to highlight gains or losses for either one’s own family or community. We identify the optimal treatment separately for each targeted behavior by adaptively allocating shares across arms over 10 experimental rounds using exploration sampling. Based on phone surveys with nearly 4,000 households and using several elicitation methods, we do not find evidence of impact on knowledge or adoption of preventive health behavior, and our confidence intervals cannot rule out positive effects as large as 5.5 percentage points, or 16%. Our results suggest that SMS-based information campaigns may have limited efficacy after the initial phase of a pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Bahety, Girija & Bauhoff, Sebastian & Patel, Dev & Potter, James, 2021. "Texts don’t nudge: An adaptive trial to prevent the spread of COVID-19 in India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:153:y:2021:i:c:s0304387821001140
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2021.102747
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304387821001140
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2021.102747?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Diva Dhar & Tarun Jain & Seema Jayachandran, 2022. "Reshaping Adolescents' Gender Attitudes: Evidence from a School-Based Experiment in India," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(3), pages 899-927, March.
    2. A. Stefano Caria & Grant Gordon & Maximilian Kasy & Simon Quinn & Soha Shami & Alexander Teytelboym, 2020. "An Adaptive Targeted Field Experiment: Job Search Assistance for Refugees in Jordan," CSAE Working Paper Series 2020-20, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    3. Bennear, Lori & Tarozzi, Alessandro & Pfaff, Alexander & Balasubramanya, Soumya & Matin Ahmed, Kazi & van Geen, Alexander, 2013. "Impact of a randomized controlled trial in arsenic risk communication on household water-source choices in Bangladesh," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 225-240.
    4. Karlan, Dean S. & Zinman, Jonathan, 2012. "List randomization for sensitive behavior: An application for measuring use of loan proceeds," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(1), pages 71-75.
    5. Maximilian Kasy & Anja Sautmann, 2021. "Adaptive Treatment Assignment in Experiments for Policy Choice," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(1), pages 113-132, January.
    6. Sadish, D & Adhvaryu, Achyuta & Nyshadham, Anant, 2021. "(Mis)information and anxiety: Evidence from a randomized Covid-19 information campaign," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    7. Kahneman, Daniel & Tversky, Amos, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(2), pages 263-291, March.
    8. Pascaline Dupas, 2009. "What Matters (and What Does Not) in Households' Decision to Invest in Malaria Prevention?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 224-230, May.
    9. Meredith, Jennifer & Robinson, Jonathan & Walker, Sarah & Wydick, Bruce, 2013. "Keeping the doctor away: Experimental evidence on investment in preventative health products," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 196-210.
    10. Maximilian Kasy & Alexander Teytelboym, 2020. "Adaptive targeted infectious disease testing," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(Supplemen), pages 77-93.
    11. Young, Alwyn, 2019. "Channeling Fisher: randomization tests and the statistical insignificance of seemingly significant experimental results," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 101401, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    12. Amos Tversky & Daniel Kahneman, 1991. "Loss Aversion in Riskless Choice: A Reference-Dependent Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(4), pages 1039-1061.
    13. Alwyn Young, 2019. "Channeling Fisher: Randomization Tests and the Statistical Insignificance of Seemingly Significant Experimental Results," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 134(2), pages 557-598.
    14. Jay J. Van Bavel & Katherine Baicker & Paulo S. Boggio & Valerio Capraro & Aleksandra Cichocka & Mina Cikara & Molly J. Crockett & Alia J. Crum & Karen M. Douglas & James N. Druckman & John Drury & Oe, 2020. "Using social and behavioural science to support COVID-19 pandemic response," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 4(5), pages 460-471, May.
    15. Abhijit Banerjee & Marcella Alsan & Emily Breza & Arun G. Chandrasekhar & Abhijit Chowdhury & Esther Duflo & Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham & Benjamin A. Olken, 2020. "Messages on COVID-19 Prevention in India Increased Symptoms Reporting and Adherence to Preventive Behaviors Among 25 Million Recipients with Similar Effects on Non-recipient Members of Their Communiti," NBER Working Papers 27496, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Maximilian Kasy & Alexander Teytelboym, 0. "Adaptive targeted infectious disease testing," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(Supplemen), pages 77-93.
    17. Madajewicz, Malgosia & Pfaff, Alexander & van Geen, Alexander & Graziano, Joseph & Hussein, Iftikhar & Momotaj, Hasina & Sylvi, Roksana & Ahsan, Habibul, 2007. "Can information alone change behavior? Response to arsenic contamination of groundwater in Bangladesh," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(2), pages 731-754, November.
    18. Abu Siddique & Tabassum Rahman & Debayan Pakrashi & Asad Islam & Firoz Ahmed, 2020. "Raising COVID-19 Awareness in Rural Communities: A Randomized Experiment in Bangladesh and India," Munich Papers in Political Economy 09, Munich School of Politics and Public Policy and the School of Management at the Technical University of Munich.
    19. Falco, Paolo & Zaccagni, Sarah, 2020. "Promoting social distancing in a pandemic: Beyond the good intentions," OSF Preprints a2nys, Center for Open Science.
    20. Abhijit Banerjee & Arun G. Chandrasekhar & Suresh Dalpath & Esther Duflo & John Floretta & Matthew O. Jackson & Harini Kannan & Francine N. Loza & Anirudh Sankar & Anna Schrimpf & Maheshwor Shrestha, 2021. "Selecting the Most Effective Nudge: Evidence from a Large-Scale Experiment on Immunization," NBER Working Papers 28726, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Michele Di Maio & Francesco Fasani & Valerio Leone Sciabolazza & Vasco Molini, 2022. "Facing Displacement and a Global Pandemic: Evidence from a Fragile State," CReAM Discussion Paper Series 2208, Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM), Department of Economics, University College London.
    2. Islam, Asad & Kusnadi, Gita & Rezki, Jahen & Sim, Armand & van Empel, Giovanni & Vlassopoulos, Michael & Zenou, Yves, 2023. "Addressing Vaccine Hesitancy Using Local Ambassadors: A Randomized Controlled Trial in Indonesia," IZA Discussion Papers 15899, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Edward Miguel & Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak, 2021. "The Economics of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Poor Countries," NBER Working Papers 29339, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Esposito Acosta,Bruno Nicola & Sautmann,Anja, 2022. "Adaptive Experiments for Policy Choice : Phone Calls for Home Reading in Kenya," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10098, The World Bank.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pascaline Dupas & Edward Miguel, 2016. "Impacts and Determinants of Health Levels in Low-Income Countries," NBER Working Papers 22235, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Islam, Asad & Kusnadi, Gita & Rezki, Jahen & Sim, Armand & van Empel, Giovanni & Vlassopoulos, Michael & Zenou, Yves, 2023. "Addressing Vaccine Hesitancy Using Local Ambassadors: A Randomized Controlled Trial in Indonesia," IZA Discussion Papers 15899, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Abu Siddique & Tabassum Rahman & Debayan Pakrashi & Asad Islam & Firoz Ahmed, 2020. "Raising COVID-19 Awareness in Rural Communities: A Randomized Experiment in Bangladesh and India," Munich Papers in Political Economy 09, Munich School of Politics and Public Policy and the School of Management at the Technical University of Munich.
    4. Delphine Boutin & Laurène Petifour & Haris Megzari, 2022. "Instability of preferences due to Covid-19 Crisis and emotions: a natural experiment from urban Burkina Faso," Working Papers hal-03623601, HAL.
    5. Dorison, Charles A & Lerner, Jennifer S & Heller, Blake H & Rothman, Alexander J & Kawachi, Ichiro I & Wang, Ke & Rees, Vaughan W & Gill, Brian P & Gibbs, Nancy & Ebersole, Charles R & Vally, Zahir & , 2022. "In COVID-19 health messaging, loss framing increases anxiety with little-to-no concomitant benefits : Experimental evidence from 84 countries," Other publications TiSEM 235f67b6-6be5-4061-8693-3, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    6. Dammert, Ana C. & Galdo, Jose C. & Galdo, Virgilio, 2014. "Preventing dengue through mobile phones: Evidence from a field experiment in Peru," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 147-161.
    7. Oriana Bandiera & Robin Burgess & Erika Deserranno & Ricardo Morel & Imran Rasul & Munshi Sulaiman & Jack Thiemel, 2022. "Microfinance and Diversification," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 89(S1), pages 239-275, June.
    8. Barnwal, Prabhat & van Geen, Alexander & von der Goltz, Jan & Singh, Chander Kumar, 2017. "Demand for environmental quality information and household response: Evidence from well-water arsenic testing," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 160-192.
    9. Boutin, Delphine & Petifour, Laurene & Megzari, Haris, 2023. "Permanent Instability of Preferences after COVID-19 Crisis: A Natural Experiment from Urban Burkina Faso," IZA Discussion Papers 16075, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Brian Gill & others, "undated". "In COVID-19 Health Messaging, Loss Framing Increases Anxiety with Little-to-No Concomitant Benefits: Experimental Evidence from 84 Countries," Mathematica Policy Research Reports ac30d0619fd64793b2e1b108d, Mathematica Policy Research.
    11. Shusaku Sasaki & Hirofumi Kurokawa & Fumio Ohtake, 2020. "Short-term responses to nudge-based messages for preventing the spread of COVID-19 infection: Intention, behavior, and life satisfaction," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 20-11, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics.
    12. Siddique, Abu & Islam, Asad & Mozumder, Tanvir Ahmed & Rahman, Tabassum & Shatil, Tanvir, 2022. "Forced Displacement, Mental Health, and Child Development: Evidence from the Rohingya Refugees," SocArXiv b4fc7, Center for Open Science.
    13. Matthew Krupoff & Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak & Alexander van Geen, 2020. "Evaluating Strategies to Reduce Arsenic Poisoning in South Asia: A View from the Social Sciences," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 37(2), pages 21-44, September.
    14. Delphine BOUTIN & Laurène PETIFOUR & Haris MEGZARI, 2022. "Instability of preferences due to Covid-19 Crisis and emotions: a natural experiment from urban Burkina Faso," Bordeaux Economics Working Papers 2022-05, Bordeaux School of Economics (BSE).
    15. Michael Vlassopoulos & Abu Siddique & Tabassum Rahman & Debayan Pakrashi & Asad Islam & Firoz Ahmed, 2021. "Improving Women's Mental Health During a Pandemic," Munich Papers in Political Economy 11, Munich School of Politics and Public Policy and the School of Management at the Technical University of Munich.
    16. Charles Yaw Okyere & Evita Hanie Pangaribowo & Nicolas Gerber, 2019. "Household Water Quality Testing and Information: Identifying Impacts on Health Outcomes and Sanitation- and Hygiene-Related Risk-Mitigating Behaviors," Evaluation Review, , vol. 43(6), pages 370-395, December.
    17. Jose Apesteguia & Miguel Ballester, 2009. "A theory of reference-dependent behavior," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 40(3), pages 427-455, September.
    18. Aksoy, Cevat Giray & Poutvaara, Panu & Schikora, Felicitas, 2020. "First Time around: Local Conditions and Multi-Dimensional Integration of Refugees," IZA Discussion Papers 13914, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    19. Eichengreen, Barry & Aksoy, Cevat Giray & Saka, Orkun, 2021. "Revenge of the experts: Will COVID-19 renew or diminish public trust in science?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    20. Shunda, Nicholas, 2009. "Auctions with a buy price: The case of reference-dependent preferences," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 645-664, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Information and communication; Health behaviors; Adaptive trial; COVID-19; SMS; India;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • I15 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Economic Development
    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:153:y:2021:i:c:s0304387821001140. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/devec .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/devec .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.