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Export growth and demographic changes: Evidence from Vietnam

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  • Hoang, Diem

Abstract

This paper evaluates the impacts of trade liberalization on the marital and fertility choices of women in Vietnam. Applying a regional exposure approach, we leverage the U.S.-Vietnam Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) as an exogenous and positive shock to the nation's export growth. Our results indicate that young women (aged 18-28) in provinces more exposed to export tariff reductions tend to delay marriage and childbirth. In contrast, we observe no significant impact on the marriage and fertility decisions of older women, nor any changes in sex-selective behavior across the general population. Further analysis reveals that this trade shock does not influence women's participation in the labor force or their employment status, nor does it lead to increased gender segregation in the labor market. The observed delay in marriage and fertility among young women may be attributed to a shift from agriculture to manufacturing and women staying longer at schools.

Suggested Citation

  • Hoang, Diem, 2025. "Export growth and demographic changes: Evidence from Vietnam," Ruhr Economic Papers 1145, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:rwirep:314409
    DOI: 10.4419/96973328
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson, 2013. "The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2121-2168, October.
    2. Sonia Bhalotra & Tom Cochrane, 2010. "Where have all the young girls gone? Identification of sex selection in India," The Centre for Market and Public Organisation 10/254, The Centre for Market and Public Organisation, University of Bristol, UK.
    3. Brian McCaig & Nina Pavcnik & Woan Foong Wong, 2022. "FDI Inflows and Domestic Firms: Adjustments to New Export Opportunities," NBER Working Papers 30729, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Rafael Dix-Carneiro & Brian K. Kovak, 2015. "Trade Liberalization and the Skill Premium: A Local Labor Markets Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 551-557, May.
    5. Brussevich, Masha, 2018. "Does trade liberalization narrow the gender wage gap? The role of sectoral mobility," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 305-333.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F61 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Microeconomic Impacts
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J16 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Gender; Non-labor Discrimination

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