IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/rwirep/314409.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Export growth and demographic changes: Evidence from Vietnam

Author

Listed:
  • Hoang, Diem

Abstract

This paper evaluates the impacts of trade liberalization on the marital and fertility choices of women in Vietnam. Applying a regional exposure approach, we leverage the U.S.-Vietnam Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) as an exogenous and positive shock to the nation's export growth. Our results indicate that young women (aged 18-28) in provinces more exposed to export tariff reductions tend to delay marriage and childbirth. In contrast, we observe no significant impact on the marriage and fertility decisions of older women, nor any changes in sex-selective behavior across the general population. Further analysis reveals that this trade shock does not influence women's participation in the labor force or their employment status, nor does it lead to increased gender segregation in the labor market. The observed delay in marriage and fertility among young women may be attributed to a shift from agriculture to manufacturing and women staying longer at schools.

Suggested Citation

  • Hoang, Diem, 2025. "Export growth and demographic changes: Evidence from Vietnam," Ruhr Economic Papers 1145, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:rwirep:314409
    DOI: 10.4419/96973328
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/314409/1/1920340823.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.4419/96973328?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brian McCaig & Nina Pavcnik & Woan Foong Wong, 2022. "Foreign and Domestic Firms: Long Run Employment Effects of Export Opportunities," NBER Working Papers 30729, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson, 2013. "The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2121-2168, October.
    3. Bhalotra, Sonia R. & Cochrane, Tom, 2010. "Where Have All the Young Girls Gone? Identification of Sex Selection in India," IZA Discussion Papers 5381, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Rafael Dix-Carneiro & Brian K. Kovak, 2015. "Trade Liberalization and the Skill Premium: A Local Labor Markets Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 551-557, May.
    5. Brussevich, Masha, 2018. "Does trade liberalization narrow the gender wage gap? The role of sectoral mobility," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 305-333.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dix-Carneiro, Rafael & Kovak, Brian K., 2023. "Globalization and Inequality in Latin America," IZA Discussion Papers 16363, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Felipe Benguria & Josh Ederington, 2023. "Decomposing the effect of trade on the gender wage gap," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 56(3), pages 1082-1120, August.
    3. Gustavo de Souza & Haishi Li, 2025. "The Employment Consequences of Anti-Dumping Tariffs: Lessons from Brazil," CESifo Working Paper Series 11654, CESifo.
    4. Juan Blyde & Matias Busso & Kyunglin Park & Dario Romero, 2023. "Short‐ and long‐run labor market adjustment to import competition," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(4), pages 1552-1569, September.
    5. Ulyssea, Gabriel & Ponczek, Vladimir, 2018. "Enforcement of Labor Regulation and the Labor Market Effects of Trade: Evidence from Brazil," IZA Discussion Papers 11783, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Felipe Benguria & Felipe Saffie & Sergio Urzua, 2024. "The Transmission of Commodity Price Super-Cycles," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(4), pages 1923-1955.
    7. Benny Kleinman & Ernest Liu & Stephen J. Redding, 2023. "Dynamic Spatial General Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 91(2), pages 385-424, March.
    8. Besedeš, Tibor & Lee, Seung Hoon & Yang, Tongyang, 2021. "Trade liberalization and gender gaps in local labor market outcomes: Dimensions of adjustment in the United States," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 574-588.
    9. Bezerra De Goes,Carlos Andre & Lopez-Acevedo,Gladys C. & Robertson,Raymond, 2023. "Gender-Segmented Labor Markets and Trade Shocks," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10518, The World Bank.
    10. Costa, Francisco & Garred, Jason & Pessoa, João Paulo, 2016. "Winners and losers from a commodities-for-manufactures trade boom," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 50-69.
    11. Stemmler, Henry, 2023. "Automated Deindustrialization: How Global Robotization Affects Emerging Economies—Evidence from Brazil," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    12. Karin Mayr-Dorn & Gaia Narciso & Duc Anh Dang & Hien Phan, 2023. "Trade diversion and labor market adjustment: Vietnam and the U.S.-China trade war," Trinity Economics Papers tep0923, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    13. Patralekha Ukil, 2025. "Economic Shocks and Infant Health: The Intergenerational Effects of Import Competition in the U.S," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(6), pages 1121-1142, June.
    14. Alexander Davenport & Peter Levell, 2022. "Brexit and labour market inequalities: potential spatial and occupational impacts," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 38(1), pages 50-67.
    15. Benny Kleinman & Ernest Liu & Stephen J. Redding, 2024. "International Friends and Enemies," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 350-385, October.
    16. Pinelopi K. Goldberg & Nina Pavcnik, 2016. "The Effects of Trade Policy," NBER Working Papers 21957, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Cheng, Cheng & Wang, Xiaobing, 2021. "Transportation cost reducing technological change and wages inequalities," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 600-611.
    18. Faqin Lin, 2022. "Agriculture exports, child labor and youth education: Evidence from 68 developing countries," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 490-513, May.
    19. Manuel Fernández & Gabriela Serrano, 2022. "New Perspectives on Inequality in Latin America," Documentos CEDE 20295, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    20. Francisco Costa & Angelo Marcantonio & Rudi Rocha, 2023. "Stop Suffering! Economic Downturns and Pentecostal Upsurge," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 21(1), pages 215-250.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F61 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Microeconomic Impacts
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J16 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Gender; Non-labor Discrimination

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:rwirep:314409. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rwiesde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.