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Brexit and labour market inequalities: potential spatial and occupational impacts

Author

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  • Alex Davenport

    (Institute for Fiscal Studies)

  • Peter Levell

    (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies)

Abstract

In this paper we examine the possible distributional impacts of new trade barriers associated with the new Trade and Cooperation Agreement governing relations between the UK and EU after Brexit. We use a model of labour demand that incorporates input-output links across industries, and that allows for demand substitution by firms and consumers and worker reallocation across industries. We find that workers’ exposure is moderately increasing across the earnings distribution. Exposure is greater for men than for women as they are more likely to work in manufacturing industries that are relatively harder hit by new trade barriers. Looking across areas, we find that exposure to new Brexit trade barriers is uncorrelated with measures of local deprivation and the impacts of the recent COVID-19 pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Alex Davenport & Peter Levell, 2021. "Brexit and labour market inequalities: potential spatial and occupational impacts," IFS Working Papers W21/42, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:21/42
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Rachel Griffith & Peter Levell & Agnes Norris Keiller, 2021. "Potential Consequences of Post‐Brexit Trade Barriers for Earnings Inequality in the UK," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 88(352), pages 839-862, October.
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    7. Anderson, Michael L., 2008. "Multiple Inference and Gender Differences in the Effects of Early Intervention: A Reevaluation of the Abecedarian, Perry Preschool, and Early Training Projects," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 103(484), pages 1481-1495.
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    1. Shouxin Bai & Shicheng Zhou & Yuyao Sheng & Xingwei Wang, 2022. "Does Lockdown Reduce Employment in Major Developing Countries? An Assessment Based on Multiregional Input–Output Model and Scenario Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-19, June.

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