IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fednsr/821.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Import competition and household debt

Author

Listed:

Abstract

We analyze the effect of import competition on household balance sheets from 2000 to 2007 using individual data on consumer finances. We exploit variation in exposure to foreign competition using industry-level shipping costs and initial differences in regions? industry specialization. We show that household debt increased significantly in regions where manufacturing industries are more exposed to import competition. A one standard deviation increase in exposure to import competition explains 30 percent of the cross-regional variation in household leverage growth, and is mostly driven by home equity extraction. Our results highlight the distributive effects of globalization and their consequences for household finances.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Noël Barrot & Erik Loualiche & Matthew Plosser & Julien Sauvagnat, 2017. "Import competition and household debt," Staff Reports 821, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:821
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr821.html
    File Function: Summary
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/staff_reports/sr821.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thomas Chaney & David Sraer & David Thesmar, 2012. "The Collateral Channel: How Real Estate Shocks Affect Corporate Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 2381-2409, October.
    2. Jean‐Noël Barrot & Erik Loualiche & Julien Sauvagnat, 2019. "The Globalization Risk Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 74(5), pages 2391-2439, October.
    3. Kyle Herkenhoff, 2016. "The Impact of Consumer Credit Access on Employment, Earnings and Entrepreneurship," 2016 Meeting Papers 781, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. David B. Gross & Nicholas S. Souleles, 2002. "Do Liquidity Constraints and Interest Rates Matter for Consumer Behavior? Evidence from Credit Card Data," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(1), pages 149-185.
    5. Milton Friedman, 1957. "Introduction to "A Theory of the Consumption Function"," NBER Chapters, in: A Theory of the Consumption Function, pages 1-6, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Bernard, Andrew B. & Jensen, J. Bradford & Schott, Peter K., 2006. "Survival of the best fit: Exposure to low-wage countries and the (uneven) growth of U.S. manufacturing plants," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 219-237, January.
    7. Hurst, Erik & Stafford, Frank, 2004. "Home Is Where the Equity Is: Mortgage Refinancing and Household Consumption," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(6), pages 985-1014, December.
    8. Alfonso Irarrazabal & Andreas Moxnes & Luca David Opromolla, 2015. "The Tip of the Iceberg: A Quantitative Framework for Estimating Trade Costs," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 97(4), pages 777-792, October.
    9. Michael Kumhof & Romain Rancière & Pablo Winant, 2015. "Inequality, Leverage, and Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(3), pages 1217-1245, March.
    10. Daniel Cooper, 2013. "House Price Fluctuations: The Role of Housing Wealth as Borrowing Collateral," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(4), pages 1183-1197, October.
    11. Treb Allen & Costas Arkolakis & Yuta Takahashi, 2020. "Universal Gravity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(2), pages 393-433.
    12. D. Carroll Christopher, 2000. "Risky Habits and the Marginal Propensity to Consume Output of Permanent Income, or, How Much Would a Permanent Tax Cut Boost Japanese Consumption?," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(4), pages 1-40.
    13. Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November.
    14. Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Marianna Kudlyak & John Mondragon & Olivier Coibion, 2014. "Does Greater Inequality Lead to More Household Borrowing? New Evidence from Household Data," 2014 Meeting Papers 402, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. Luigi Pistaferri, 2001. "Superior Information, Income Shocks, And The Permanent Income Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(3), pages 465-476, August.
    16. Milton Friedman, 1957. "A Theory of the Consumption Function," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie57-1, december.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Braggion, Fabio & Manconi, Alberto & Zhu, Haikun, 2018. "Can Technology Undermine Macroprudential Regulation? Evidence from Peer-to-Peer Credit in China," CEPR Discussion Papers 12668, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Teresa C. Fort & Justin R. Pierce & Peter K. Schott, 2018. "New Perspectives on the Decline of US Manufacturing Employment," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(2), pages 47-72, Spring.
    3. Colantone, Italo & Crinò, Rosario & Ogliari, Laura, 2019. "Globalization and mental distress," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 181-207.
    4. Che, Yi & Xiao, Rui, 2020. "Import competition, fast-track authority and U.S. policy toward China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 974-996.
    5. Michael E. Waugh, 2019. "The Consumption Response to Trade Shocks: Evidence from the US-China Trade War," NBER Working Papers 26353, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Kovács, Olivér, 2017. "Az ipar 4.0 komplexitása - II [The Complexity of Industry 4.0 - Part 2]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(9), pages 970-987.
    7. Zhu, Haikun, 2018. "Essays on political economy of finance and fintech," Other publications TiSEM 93f94423-e671-4041-bb24-8, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    8. J. Anthony Cookson & Erik P. Gilje & Rawley Z. Heimer, 2020. "Shale Shocked: Cash Windfalls and Household Debt Repayment," NBER Working Papers 27782, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Massimo Coletta & Riccardo De Bonis & Stefano Piermattei, 2019. "Household Debt in OECD Countries: The Role of Supply-Side and Demand-Side Factors," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 143(3), pages 1185-1217, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mr. Martin Sommer & Mr. Christopher Carroll & Mr. Jiri Slacalek, 2012. "Dissecting Saving Dynamics: Measuring Wealth, Precautionary, and Credit Effects," IMF Working Papers 2012/219, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Till Treeck, 2014. "Did Inequality Cause The U.S. Financial Crisis?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(3), pages 421-448, July.
    3. Dilla, Diana, 2017. "Staatsverschuldung und Verschuldungsmentalität [Public Debt and Debt Mentality]," MPRA Paper 79432, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Christopher D. Carroll & Edmund Crawley & Jiri Slacalek & Kiichi Tokuoka & Matthew N. White, 2020. "Sticky Expectations and Consumption Dynamics," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(3), pages 40-76, July.
    5. Rannenberg, Ansgar, 2017. "The effect of fiscal policy and forward guidance with preferences over wealth," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168070, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    6. Meghir, Costas & Pistaferri, Luigi, 2011. "Earnings, Consumption and Life Cycle Choices," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 9, pages 773-854, Elsevier.
    7. d’Astous, Philippe, 2019. "Responses to an anticipated increase in cash on hand: Evidence from term loan repayments," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    8. Christian A. Belabed, 2016. "Inequality and the New Deal," IMK Working Paper 166-2016, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    9. Luca Zanin, 2017. "The effects of various motives to save money on the propensity of Italian households to allocate an unexpected inheritance towards consumption," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 1755-1775, July.
    10. Adam M Guren & Alisdair McKay & Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2021. "Housing Wealth Effects: The Long View," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 88(2), pages 669-707.
    11. Dettling, Lisa J. & Hsu, Joanne W., 2018. "Returning to the nest: Debt and parental co-residence among young adults," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 225-236.
    12. repec:fip:fedkrw:rwp2013-07 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Luc Arrondel & Pierre Lamarche & Frédérique Savignac, 2014. "Consommation et patrimoine des ménages : au‑delà du débat macroéconomique…," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 472(1), pages 21-48.
    14. Lukas, Moritz & Nöth, Markus, 2016. "Commitment and Borrower Heterogeneity: Evidence from Revolving Consumer Credit," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145870, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    15. Andrew G. Haldane & Arthur E. Turrell, 2019. "Drawing on different disciplines: macroeconomic agent-based models," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 39-66, March.
    16. Marianne Bertrand & Adair Morse, 2016. "Trickle-Down Consumption," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(5), pages 863-879, December.
    17. Luis E. Arango & Lina Cardona-Sosa, 2019. "Tarjetas de crédito en personas de ingresos medios y bajos en Colombia: ¿qué determina su uso?," Borradores de Economia 1089, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    18. Madis Aben & Merike Kukk & Karsten Staehr, 2012. "Housing Equity Withdrawal and Consumption Dynamics in Estonia 2002-2011," Research in Economics and Business: Central and Eastern Europe, Tallinn School of Economics and Business Administration, Tallinn University of Technology, vol. 4(1).
    19. Elisabeth Beckmann & Mariya Hake & Jarmila Urvová, 2013. "Determinants of Households’ Savings in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 8-29.
    20. Shaar, Karam, 2019. "Essays on modern economic issues in international trade, exchange rates and housing," Working Paper Series 8039, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    21. Anders Bondemark & Henrik Andersson & Anders Wretstrand & Karin Brundell-Freij, 2021. "Is it expensive to be poor? Public transport in Sweden," Transportation, Springer, vol. 48(5), pages 2709-2734, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    trade; household finance; mortgages;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • F6 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:821. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbnyus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbnyus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.