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Trapped Factors and China's Impact on Global Growth

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  • Nicholas Bloom
  • Paul M. Romer
  • Stephen J. Terry
  • John Van Reenen

Abstract

In a general equilibrium product-cycle model, lower trade barriers increase Southern purchasing power, which lifts long-run growth by increasing the profit from innovation. In the short run, factors of production must be reallocated inside firms, which lowers the opportunity cost of innovation, generating an additional trapped factor effect. Starting from a baseline OECD growth rate of 2% we find that trade integration with low-wage countries in the decade around China's WTO accession could have increased long-run growth to 2.4%. There is an additional short-run trapped factors effect, raising growth to 2.7%. China accounts for about half of these growth increases.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicholas Bloom & Paul M. Romer & Stephen J. Terry & John Van Reenen, 2014. "Trapped Factors and China's Impact on Global Growth," NBER Working Papers 19951, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19951
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    2. Grüning, Patrick, 2018. "Heterogeneity in the internationalization of R&D: Implications for anomalies in finance and macroeconomics," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 132-138.
    3. Xu, Kun & Guan, Zhihua & Xu, Wenli, 2015. "省级财政支出效率空间溢出效应研究:基于超效率dea和gsm模型 [Study on Spatial Spillover Effect of Provincial Fiscal Efficiency: Based on Super-Efficient DEA and GSM Model]," MPRA Paper 71132, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson & Gary Pisano & Pian Shu, 2020. "Foreign Competition and Domestic Innovation: Evidence from US Patents," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 357-374, September.
    5. Sai Ding & Puyang Sun & Wei Jiang, 2016. "The Effect of Import Competition on Firm Productivity and Innovation: Does the Distance to Technology Frontier Matter?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(2), pages 197-227, April.
    6. Boddin, Dominik, 2018. "Imports, Exports and Domestic Innovation," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181640, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

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