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Trapped Factors and China's Impact on Global Growth

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  • Nicholas Bloom
  • Paul Romer
  • Stephen Terry
  • John Van Reenen

Abstract

When China's accession to the WTO exposed European firms to import competition, they responded by increasing their investment in innovation. This response was stronger in industries and firms where factors of production were less mobile. Motivated by this evidence, we incorporate "trapped factors" at the micro level into a general equilibrium model of product-cycle trade and growth. In a calibrated version of the model that starts with a baseline growth rate of 2%, trade integration between the OECD and low-wage countries can increase the steady-state growth rate to 2.4% per year. Factors that are trapped at a firm by an unexpected change in trade policy do not change this long-run growth rate, but in the medium run, they could have a noticeable effect on aggregate growth. Simulations of the model show that in the first decade after liberalization, growth jumps to 2.7% per year and that trapped factors account for almost all of the 0.3% = 2.7% − 2.4% increase above the steady state growth rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicholas Bloom & Paul Romer & Stephen Terry & John Van Reenen, 2014. "Trapped Factors and China's Impact on Global Growth," CEP Discussion Papers dp1261, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  • Handle: RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1261
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Chihiro Inaba & Katsufumi Fukuda, 2015. "Effects on the Cross-Country Difference in the Minimum Wage on International Trade, Growth and Unemployment," Discussion Paper Series DP2015-29, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
    2. Autor, David & Dorn, David & Hanson, Gordon & Pisano, Gary & Shu, Pian, 2016. "Foreign Competition and Domestic Innovation: Evidence from U.S. Patents," CEPR Discussion Papers 11664, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Xu, Kun & Guan, Zhihua & Xu, Wenli, 2015. "省级财政支出效率空间溢出效应研究:基于超效率dea和gsm模型
      [Study on Spatial Spillover Effect of Provincial Fiscal Efficiency: Based on Super-Efficient DEA and GSM Model]
      ," MPRA Paper 71132, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Sai Ding & Puyang Sun & Wei Jiang, 2016. "The Effect of Import Competition on Firm Productivity and Innovation: Does the Distance to Technology Frontier Matter?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(2), pages 197-227, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Innovation; trade; China; endogenous growth;

    JEL classification:

    • D92 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice, Investment, Capacity, and Financing
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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