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Brahmin Left Versus Merchant Right: Changing Political Cleavages in 21 Western Democracies, 1948–2020

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  • Amory Gethin

    (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

  • Clara Martínez-Toledano

    (Imperial College London)

  • Thomas Piketty

    (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

Abstract

This article sheds new light on the long-run evolution of political cleavages in 21 Western democracies. We exploit a new database on the socioeconomic determinants of the vote, covering more than 300 elections held between 1948 and 2020. In the 1950s and 1960s, the vote for social democratic, socialist, and affiliated parties was associated with lower-educated and low-income voters. It has gradually become associated with higher-educated voters, giving rise in the 2010s to a disconnection between the effects of income and education on the vote: higher-educated voters now vote for the "left," while high-income voters continue to vote for the "right." This transition has been accelerated by the rise of green and anti-immigration movements, whose distinctive feature is to concentrate the votes of the higher-educated and lower-educated electorates. Combining our database with historical data on political parties' programs, we provide evidence that the reversal of the education cleavage is strongly linked to the emergence of a new "sociocultural" axis of political conflict.

Suggested Citation

  • Amory Gethin & Clara Martínez-Toledano & Thomas Piketty, 2022. "Brahmin Left Versus Merchant Right: Changing Political Cleavages in 21 Western Democracies, 1948–2020," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-03672669, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:pseptp:halshs-03672669
    DOI: 10.1093/qje/qjab036
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    2. Fraccaroli, Nicolò & Giovannini, Alessandro & Jamet, Jean-François & Persson, Eric, 2022. "Ideology and monetary policy. The role of political parties’ stances in the European Central Bank’s parliamentary hearings," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    3. Schmutz, Benoît & Verdugo, Gregory, 2023. "Do elections affect immigration? Evidence from French municipalities," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 218(C).
    4. Rainer Franz Kotschy & Uwe Sunde, 2022. "Does Demography Determine Democratic Attitudes?," CESifo Working Paper Series 9535, CESifo.
    5. Alizade, Jeyhun, 2024. "The Electoral Politics of Immigration and Crime," OSF Preprints h967e, Center for Open Science.
    6. Bottasso, Anna & Cerruti, Gianluca & Conti, Maurizio & Santagata, Marta, 2024. "Sailing Through History: The Legacy of Medieval Sea Trade On Migrant Perception and Extreme Right Voting," IZA Discussion Papers 16996, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Amory Gethin & Clara Martínez-Toledano & Thomas Piketty, 2022. "Brahmin Left Versus Merchant Right: Changing Political Cleavages in 21 Western Democracies, 1948–2020," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 137(1), pages 1-48.
    8. Jésus Fernández-Villaverde & Carlos Sanz & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, 2024. "Classical Right, New Right, and Voting Behavior: Evidence from a Quasi-Natural Experiment," CESifo Working Paper Series 11179, CESifo.
    9. Zuazu, Izaskun, 2024. "Gender and the pandemic in political ideology: The case of Spain," ifso working paper series 37, University of Duisburg-Essen, Institute for Socioeconomics (ifso).
    10. Kim Leonie Kellermann, 2022. "Political inequality, political participation, and support for populist parties," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 33(4), pages 461-482, December.
    11. Barth, Erling & Finseraas, Henning & Kjelsrud, Anders & Moene, Kalle, 2023. "Openness and the welfare state: risk and income effects in protection without protectionism," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    12. Christian Joppke, 2023. "Explaining the Populist Right in the Neoliberal West," Societies, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-20, April.
    13. Cyprien Batut & Ulysse Lojkine & Paolo Santini, 2024. "“Which side are you on?” A historical study of union membership composition in seven Western countries," Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(2), pages 205-287, April.
    14. Windsteiger, Lisa, 2022. "The redistributive consequences of segregation and misperceptions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).

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