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The macroeconomic impact of Trump

Author

Listed:
  • Benjamin Born
  • Gernot J. Müller
  • Moritz Schularick
  • Petr SedlÃ¡Ä ek

Abstract

How much credit does Donald Trump deserve for the macroeconomic performance of the US economy? Growth and job creation have been robust during the first 2.5 years of his presidential term, but this does not prove that Trump made a difference. In this note we develop a counterfactual scenario for how the US economy would have evolved without Trump—we let a matching algorithm determine which combination of other economies best resembles the pre-election path of the US economy. We then compare the post-election performance of the US economy to this synthetic “doppelganger†. There is little evidence for a Trump effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Benjamin Born & Gernot J. Müller & Moritz Schularick & Petr SedlÃ¡Ä ek, 2020. "The macroeconomic impact of Trump," Economics Series Working Papers 928, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:oxf:wpaper:928
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    2. Michal Brzezinski & Katarzyna Sałach‐Dróżdż, 2024. "The short‐term macroeconomic impact of populism: A case study of Poland," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 832-867, July.
    3. Fetzer, Thiemo & Yotzov, Ivan, 2023. "(How) Do electoral surprises drive business cycles? Evidence from a new dataset," CEPR Discussion Papers 18306, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Andreas Brunhart & Martin Geiger, 2025. "Sectoral effects of exchange rate shocks: goods exports and the appreciation of the Swiss Franc in 2015," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 161(1), pages 1-25, December.
    5. Wysocki, Maciej & Wojcik, Cezary & Freytag, Andreas, 2024. "Populists and fiscal policy: The case of Poland," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    6. Pan, Wei-Fong, 2023. "The effect of populism on high-skilled migration: Evidence from inventors," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    7. Ferrari, Alessandro & Rogantini Picco, Anna, 2023. "Risk sharing and the adoption of the Euro," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    8. Manuel Funke & Moritz Schularick & Christoph Trebesch, 2023. "Populist Leaders and the Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(12), pages 3249-3288, December.
    9. Sergei Guriev & Elias Papaioannou, 2022. "The Political Economy of Populism," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(3), pages 753-832, September.
    10. Bibek Adhikari, 2022. "A Guide to Using the Synthetic Control Method to Quantify the Effects of Shocks, Policies, and Shocking Policies," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 67(1), pages 46-63, March.
    11. Di Tommaso, Marco Rodolfo & Prodi, Elena & Di Matteo, Dante & Barbieri, Elisa, 2025. "Structural change and its discontents," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 438-455.
    12. Gabriel, Ricardo Duque & Pessoa, Ana Sofia, 2024. "Adopting the euro: A synthetic control approach," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    13. Sergei Guriev, 2020. "Labor market performance and the rise of populism," World of Labour, LISER, pages 479-479, July.
    14. Ana Venâncio & João Pereira dos Santos, 2021. "The effect of Brexit on British workers living in the EU," Working Papers REM 2021/0197, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    15. Jan Philipp Fritsche & Patrick Christian Harms, 2020. "Better off without the Euro? A Structural VAR Assessment of European Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1907, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.

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    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General

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