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Foreign direct investment and exchange rate uncertainty in imperfectly competitive industries

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  • Sylvia Gottschalk
  • R. Barrel
  • S.G. Hall

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between exchange rate uncertainty and the location of US foreign direct investment in Europe. We adopt a mean-variance approach to the standard q theory of investment in order to highlight the impact of exchange rate volatility and exchange rate correlation on investment. A firm concerned with both maximizing profits and minimizing risk would exploit any correlation between exchange rate movements to reduce the variance of its total profit. We estimate US foreign investment in the UK and in Continental Europe in a panel of seven manufacturing industries. Our results show that US firms investing in Europe tend to be risk-averse and decrease their investments as exchange rate volatility rises. Market power does not seem to reduce the effects of exchange rate volatility on FDI. We found strong evidence that the UK is the preferred European location for US investors, since an increase in the correlation between the sterling dollar exchange rate and the euro dollar exchange rate tends to relocate US investment from the Euro Zone to the UK.
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Suggested Citation

  • Sylvia Gottschalk & R. Barrel & S.G. Hall, 2004. "Foreign direct investment and exchange rate uncertainty in imperfectly competitive industries," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 39, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    • Handle: RePEc:mmf:mmfc03:39
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Azzouzi Asmae & Bousselhami Ahmed, 2019. "Impact of the Exchange Rate and Price Volatility on FDI Inflows: Case of Morocco and Turkey," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 6(3), pages 87-104, May.
    3. Barry Hamidou Auteur & Malick Camara, 2025. "Volatilité Du Taux De Change Et Investissements Directs Étrangers En Afrique De L'ouest Exchange Rate Volatility and Foreign Direct Investment in West Africa," Post-Print hal-05422231, HAL.
    4. Warren Moraghen & Boopen Seetanah & Noor Sookia, 2019. "Explaining Heterogeneity in the Effect of the Exchange Rate and Exchange Rate Volatility on Foreign Direct Investment: A Meta‐Analysis Approach," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 31(3), pages 275-291, September.
    5. Matthias Busse & Carsten Hefeker & Signe Nelgen, 2013. "Foreign Direct Investment and Exchange Rate Regimes," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(1), pages 843-858.
    6. Fedderke, J.W. & Romm, A.T., 2006. "Growth impact and determinants of foreign direct investment into South Africa, 1956-2003," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 738-760, September.
    7. Muhammad Azam & Muhammad Khan & Nasir Iqbal, 2012. "Impact of Political Risk and Uncertainty on FDI in South Asia," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 19(1), pages 59-77, September.
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    9. International Monetary Fund, 2004. "United Kingdom: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2004/055, International Monetary Fund.
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    11. Mr. Carlo Cottarelli & Mr. Julio Escolano, 2004. "Assessing the Assessment: A Critical Look At the June 2003 Assessment of the United Kingdom'S Five Tests for Euro Entry," IMF Working Papers 2004/116, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Shauna Phillips & Fredoun Z. Ahmadi-Esfahani, 2008. "Exchange rates and foreign direct investment: theoretical models and empirical evidence ," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 52(4), pages 505-525, December.
    13. Zerrin KILI ARSLAN, 2018. "The Relationship between Exchange Rate Volatility and Foreign Direct Investment in Turkey: Toda and Yamamoto Causality Analysis," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 8(4), pages 61-67.
    14. Sakli Hniya & Ahlem Boubker & Fatma Mrad & Sawssen Nafti, 2021. "The Impact of Real Exchange Rate Volatility on Foreign Direct Investment Inflows in Tunisia," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 11(5), pages 52-67.
    15. Warren Moraghen & Boopen Seetanah & Noor Sookia, 2021. "Impact of exchange rate and exchange rate volatility on foreign direct investment inflow for Mauritius: A dynamic time series approach," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 33(4), pages 581-591, December.
    16. Phillips, Shauna & Ahmadi-Esfahani, Fredoun Z., 2008. "Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment: Theoretical Models and Empirical Evidence," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 54(4), pages 1-21.

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