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Fiscal Spillovers and Trade Relations in Europe

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  • Iana Liadze
  • Ray Barrell
  • Dawn Holland

Abstract

This paper explores the impact of openness, as measured by import penetration, on the size and duration of fiscal multipliers and spillovers across European Union members. The analysis is embedded in a macroeconomic model, NiGEM, to capture structural differences across countries, time and policy regimes. Panel estimation with PMG and CCE techniques is used to estimate trade relations. Our analysis indicates that fiscal multipliers and spillovers depend crucially on structural assumptions about policy and the formation of expectations. Fiscal policy has limited effects on the economies of Europe, and that the case for fiscal policy coordination is weak except in the short run. The case for coordination rests on spillovers which are likely to become ever smaller as financially liberalisation continues.

Suggested Citation

  • Iana Liadze & Ray Barrell & Dawn Holland, 2007. "Fiscal Spillovers and Trade Relations in Europe," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 289, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:nsr:niesrd:289
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Roel Beetsma & Massimo Giuliodori & Franc Klaassen, 2006. "Trade spill-overs of fiscal policy in the European Union: a panel analysis [‘Fiscal policy, profits, and investment’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 21(48), pages 640-687.
    2. Ray Barrell & Dirk Willem te Velde, 2002. "European Integration and Manufactures Import Demand: An Empirical Investigation of Ten European Countries," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 3(3), pages 263-293, August.
    3. Ray Barrell & Karen Dury, 2003. "Asymmetric Labour Markets in a Converging Europe: Do Differences Matter?," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 183(1), pages 56-65, January.
    4. Barrell, Ray & Dées, Stéphane, 2005. "World trade and global integration in production processes: a re-assessment of import demand equations," Working Paper Series 503, European Central Bank.
    5. Barrell, R. & Hall, S.G. & Hurst, I., 2006. "Evaluating policy feedback rules using the joint density function of a stochastic model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 1-5, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. CPB Netherlands & CAPP, 2013. "Study on the Impacts of Fiscal Devaluation," Taxation Papers 36, Directorate General Taxation and Customs Union, European Commission.
    2. Arjan Lejour & Hugo Rojas-Romagosa, 2008. "International spillovers of domestic reforms: the joint application of the Lisbon Strategy in the EU," CPB Discussion Paper 105, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    3. Ray Barrell & Sylvia Gottschalk & Dawn Holland & Ehsan Khoman & Iana Liadze & Olga Pomerantz, 2008. "The impact of EMU on growth and employment," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 318, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    4. Ray Barrell & Dawn Holland & Iana Liadze & Olga Pomerantz, 2009. "Volatility, growth and cycles," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 36(2), pages 177-192, May.
    5. Oriol Carreras & Iana Liadze & Simon Kirby & Rebecca Piggott, 2016. "Quantifying Fiscal Multipliers," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 469, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    6. Arjan Lejour & Hugo Rojas-Romagosa, 2008. "International spillovers of domestic reforms: the joint application of the Lisbon Strategy in the EU," CPB Discussion Paper 105.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    7. Oriol Carreras & Simon Kirby & Iana Liadze & Rebecca Piggott, 2016. "Fiscal Policy Spillovers," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 468, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.

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