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Monthly GDP Estimates for Inter-War Britain

Author

Listed:
  • James Mitchell
  • Solomos Solomou
  • Martin Weale

Abstract

We derive monthly and quarterly series of UK GDP for the inter-war period from a set of monthly indicators that were constructed by The Economist at the time. The monthly information is complemented with data for quarterly industrial production, allowing us to employ mixed-frequency methods to produce monthly estimates of GDP and of industrial production. We proceed to illustrate how the new data compare with existing high frequency data and how they can be used to contribute to our understanding of the economic history of the UK in the inter-war period and to draw comparisons between recession profiles in the inter-war and the post-war period.

Suggested Citation

  • James Mitchell & Solomos Solomou & Martin Weale, 2011. "Monthly GDP Estimates for Inter-War Britain," CESifo Working Paper Series 3602, CESifo Group Munich.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_3602
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Solomos Solomou & Martin Weale, 1996. "UK national income, 1920-1938: the implications of balanced estimates," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 49(1), pages 101-115, February.
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    5. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1, June.
    6. Broadberry, S N, 1986. "Aggregate Supply in Interwar Britain," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 96(382), pages 467-481, June.
    7. Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham E, 1978. "Serial Correlation as a Convenient Simplification, not a Nuisance: A Comment on a Study of the Demand for Money by the Bank of England," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(351), pages 549-563, September.
    8. Tommaso Proietti & Filippo Moauro, 2006. "Dynamic factor analysis with non-linear temporal aggregation constraints," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 55(2), pages 281-300.
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    11. Peter Temin, 1991. "Lessons from the Great Depression," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262700441, January.
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    15. James Mitchell & Richard J. Smith & Martin R. Weale & Stephen Wright & Eduardo L. Salazar, 2005. "An Indicator of Monthly GDP and an Early Estimate of Quarterly GDP Growth," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(501), pages 108-129, February.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Crafts, Nicholas & Mills, Terence C., 2013. "Rearmament to the Rescue? New Estimates of the Impact of “Keynesian” Policies in 1930s' Britain," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 73(04), pages 1077-1104, December.
    2. Crafts, Nicholas & Mills, Terence C, 2012. "Fiscal Policy in a Depressed Economy: Was There a ‘Free Lunch’ in 1930s’ Britain?," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 106, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    3. James Foreman-Peck, 2014. "Great recessions compared," Investigaciones de Historia Económica (IHE) Journal of the Spanish Economic History Association, Asociacion Espa–ola de Historia Economica, vol. 10(02), pages 92-103.
    4. Albers, Thilo & Uebele, Martin, 2015. "The global impact of the great depression," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 64491, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Nicholas Crafts, 2014. "What Does the 1930s' Experience Tell Us about the Future of the Eurozone?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(4), pages 713-727, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic history; national accounts; monthly GDP data; Great Depression;

    JEL classification:

    • N34 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - Europe: 1913-
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access

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