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Exchange rates as an instrument of monetary policy

Author

Listed:
  • Ana Santacreu

    (INSEAD)

  • Ilian Mihov

    (INSEAD)

Abstract

We analyze, in the context of a small open economy, the welfare effects of a monetary rule in which the central bank targets the nominal exchange rate. We show that, if the uncovered interest parity (UIP) holds, this rule is equivalent to the standard Taylor rule in terms of impulse responses to exogenous shocks, the time series properties of aggregate variables, and optimal monetary rules. We then introduce endogenous deviations from the UIP condition, by modelling a time-varying risk premium that generates a wedge between the interest rate differential and the rate of exchange rate depreciation. Our aim is to show that in this case, using the change in the exchange rate might be a welfare improving policy for the central bank, because in this situation of more stable exchange rates, the risk premium is reduced. We then analyze how the volatility of the main endogenous variables behaves when this policy is followed.

Suggested Citation

  • Ana Santacreu & Ilian Mihov, 2013. "Exchange rates as an instrument of monetary policy," 2013 Meeting Papers 773, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:sed013:773
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ana Maria Santacreu, 2015. "Monetary Policy in Small Open Economies: The Role of Exchange Rate Rules," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 97(3), pages 217-232.
    2. Fernando Alvarez & Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2008. "If exchange rates are random walks, then almost everything we say about monetary policy is wrong," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Jul, pages 2-9.
    3. Williamson, John, 1998. "Crawling Bands or Monitoring Bands: How to Manage Exchange Rates in a World of Capital Mobility," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(1), pages 59-79, October.
    4. Adrien Verdelhan, 2010. "A Habit‐Based Explanation of the Exchange Rate Risk Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(1), pages 123-146, February.
    5. Jordi Galí, 2008. "Introduction to Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle: An Introduction to the New Keynesian Framework," Introductory Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle: An Introduction to the New Keynesian Framework, Princeton University Press.
    6. Svensson, Lars E. O., 2000. "Open-economy inflation targeting," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 155-183, February.
    7. John Y. Campbell & John Cochrane, 1999. "Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(2), pages 205-251, April.
    8. Jermann, Urban J., 1998. "Asset pricing in production economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 257-275, April.
    9. Chow, Hwee Kwan & Lim, G.C. & McNelis, Paul D., 2014. "Monetary regime choice in Singapore: Would a Taylor rule outperform exchange-rate management?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 63-81.
    10. Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 707-734.
    11. Hoe Ee Khor & Jason Lee & Edward Robinson & Saktiandi Supaat, 2007. "Managed Float Exchange Rate System: The Singapore Experience," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 52(01), pages 7-25.
    12. David K. Backus & Federico Gavazzoni & Christopher Telmer & Stanley E. Zin, 2010. "Monetary Policy and the Uncovered Interest Parity Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 16218, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. van Binsbergen, Jules H. & Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Koijen, Ralph S.J. & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan, 2012. "The term structure of interest rates in a DSGE model with recursive preferences," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(7), pages 634-648.
    14. Manuel Amador & Javier Bianchi & Luigi Bocola & Fabrizio Perri, 2017. "Exchange Rate Policies at the Zero Lower Bound," NBER Working Papers 23266, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. De Paoli, Bianca & Sondergaard, Jens, 2009. "Foreign exchange rate risk in a small open economy," Bank of England working papers 365, Bank of England.
    16. repec:hrv:faseco:34721963 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Boniface Pepino Yemba, 2017. "Tax and monetary policy rules in a small open economy with disaggregated government purchases," International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 10(2), pages 144-182.
    2. Yoshino, Naoyuki & Kaji, Sahoko & Asonuma, Tamon, 2016. "Exchange rate regime switching in Malaysia and Singapore in response to China’s move to a basket peg: A DSGE analysis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 17-37.
    3. Ana Maria Santacreu, 2015. "Monetary Policy in Small Open Economies: The Role of Exchange Rate Rules," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 97(3), pages 217-232.
    4. International Monetary Fund, 2015. "Singapore; Staff Report for 2015 Article IV Consultation," IMF Staff Country Reports 15/199, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Peter Wilson, 2015. "Monetary Policy And Financial Sector Development," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 60(03), pages 1-25.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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