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Private Information and a Macro Model of Exchange Rates: Evidence from a Novel Data Set

  • Menzie D. Chinn
  • Michael J. Moore

We propose an exchange rate model which is a hybrid of the conventional specification with monetary fundamentals and the Evans-Lyons microstructure approach. It argues that the failure of the monetary model is principally due to private preference shocks which render the demand for money unstable. These shocks to liquidity preference are revealed through order flow. We estimate a model augmented with order flow variables, using a unique data set: almost 100 monthly observations on inter-dealer order flow on dollar/euro and dollar/yen. The augmented macroeconomic, or "hybrid", model exhibits out of sample forecasting improvement over the basic macroeconomic and random walk specifications.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 14175.

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Date of creation: Jul 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14175
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  1. Parlour, Christine A, 1998. "Price Dynamics in Limit Order Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(4), pages 789-816.
  2. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie & Garcia Pascual, Antonio, 2003. "What Do We Know about Recent Exchange Rate Models? In-Sample Fit and Out-of-Sample Performance Evaluated," Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series qt0jc800x9, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  3. Martin D. D. Evans(Georgetown University and NBER) and Richard K. Lyons(U.C. Berkeley and NBER, Haas School of Business), 2005. "Meese-Rogoff Redux: Micro-Based Exchange Rate Forecasting," Working Papers gueconwpa~05-05-01, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
  4. Paul De Grauwe (ed.), 2005. "Exchange Rate Economics: Where Do We Stand?," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262042223, December.
  5. Menzie D. Chinn & Ron Alquist, 2006. "Conventional and Unconventional Approaches to Exchange Rate Modeling and Assessment," NBER Working Papers 12481, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Maurice J. Roche & Michael J. Moore, 1999. "Less of a puzzle: a new look at the forward forex market," Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series n910799, Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
  7. Burton Hollifield & Robert Miller & Patrik Sandas, . "Empirical Analysis of Limit Order Markets," GSIA Working Papers -290183991, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
  8. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-28, August.
  9. William P. Killeen & Richard K. Lyons & Michael J. Moore, 2001. "Fixed versus Flexible: Lessons from EMS Order Flow," NBER Working Papers 8491, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Adrien Verdelhan, 2006. "A Habit-Based Explanation of the Exchange Rate Risk Premium," 2006 Meeting Papers 872, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  11. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-44, January.
  12. Evans, Martin D.D., 2010. "Order flows and the exchange rate disconnect puzzle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 58-71, January.
  13. Berger, David W. & Chaboud, Alain P. & Chernenko, Sergey V. & Howorka, Edward & Wright, Jonathan H., 2008. "Order flow and exchange rate dynamics in electronic brokerage system data," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 93-109, May.
  14. Lee, Charles M C & Ready, Mark J, 1991. " Inferring Trade Direction from Intraday Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 733-46, June.
  15. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Helene Rey, 2005. "International Financial Adjustment," NBER Working Papers 11155, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Moore, Michael J. & Roche, Maurice J., 2010. "Solving exchange rate puzzles with neither sticky prices nor trade costs," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1151-1170, October.
  17. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie & Garcia Pascual, Antonio, 2003. "Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Nineties: Are Any Fit to Survive?," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt5fc508pt, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  18. Martin D. D. Evans and Richard K. Lyons., 1999. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-288, University of California at Berkeley.
  19. Todd E. Clark & Kenneth D. West, 2004. "Using out-of-sample mean squared prediction errors to test the Martingale difference hypothesis," Research Working Paper RWP 04-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  20. Moore, Michael J. & Roche, Maurice J., 2008. "Volatile and persistent real exchange rates with or without sticky prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 423-433, March.
  21. Evans, Martin D.D. & Lyons, Richard K., 2008. "How is macro news transmitted to exchange rates?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 26-50, April.
  22. Flood, Robert P & Rose, Andrew K, 1999. "Understanding Exchange Rate Volatility without the Contrivance of Macroeconomics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(459), pages F660-72, November.
  23. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
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