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Explaining Output Volatility: the Case of Taxation

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  • Olaf Posch

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Abstract

This paper studies the determinants of output volatility in OECD countries to shed light on the sources of the observed heterogenous patterns. For this purpose, we derive tax effects on the variance of output in a stochastic version of the Ramsey model. Using panel data methods we find that effective tax rates à la Mendoza et al. (1994) are indeed (Huber) robust and substantial in explaining output volatility. Together with other controls they account for roughly two third of its variation. Taxes on labor and corporate income are found to be negatively related to macroeconomic volatility whereas the capital income tax has the opposite effect. No clear evidence is found that tax reforms account for the moderation in the U.S. while for the UK changes in tax rates can explain three quarter of the moderation from the 1980s to the 1990s.

Suggested Citation

  • Olaf Posch, 2006. "Explaining Output Volatility: the Case of Taxation," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20608, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:ham:qmwops:20608
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    Cited by:

    1. Spiliopoulos, Leonidas, 2010. "The determinants of macroeconomic volatility: A Bayesian model averaging approach," MPRA Paper 26832, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Martin Iseringhausen & Hauke Vierke, 2018. "What Drives Output Volatility? The Role of Demographics and Government Size Revisited," European Economy - Discussion Papers 2015 - 075, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    3. Catalina Granda Carvajal, 2015. "Informality and macroeconomic volatility: do credit constraints matter?," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 42(6), pages 1095-1111, November.
    4. Davide fiaschi & Lisa Gianmoena & Angela Parenti, 2013. "The Determinants of Growth Rate Volatility in European Regions," Discussion Papers 2013/170, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
    5. Yu-Fu Chen & Michael Funke, 2010. "Booms, Recessions And Financial Turmoil: A Fresh Look At Investment Decisions Under Cyclical Uncertainty," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 57(s1), pages 290-317, July.
    6. Posch, Olaf, 2009. "Structural estimation of jump-diffusion processes in macroeconomics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 153(2), pages 196-210, December.
    7. Marattin, Luigi & Marzo, Massimiliano & Zagaglia, Paolo, 2013. "Distortionary tax instruments and implementable monetary policy," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 219-243.
    8. repec:lje:journl:v:23:y:2018:i:1:p:97-141 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Robert Feicht & Wolfgang Stummer, 2010. "Complete Closed-form Solution to a Stochastic Growth Model and Corresponding Speed of Economic Recovery preliminary," DEGIT Conference Papers c015_041, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
    10. Olaf, POSCH & Klaus, WAELDE, 2005. "Natural volatility, welfare and taxation," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2005009, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
    11. Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Attinasi, Maria Grazia & Rieth, Malte, 2011. "Labour tax progressivity and output volatility: evidence from OECD countries," Working Paper Series 1380, European Central Bank.
    12. Andrey LAUNOV & Olaf POSCH & Klaus WÄLDE, 2012. "On the estimation of the volatility-growth link," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2012009, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    13. Olaf POSCH & Klaus WALDE, 2009. "On the non-causal link between volatility and growth," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2009025, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    14. Veraart, Almut E.D., 2010. "Inference For The Jump Part Of Quadratic Variation Of Itô Semimartingales," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(02), pages 331-368, April.
    15. repec:eee:eecrev:v:96:y:2017:i:c:p:18-37 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Olaf Posch & Klaus Wälde, 2011. "On the link between volatility and growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 285-308, December.
    17. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Nicolae Bogdan Ianc, 2016. "Fiscal Policy, Fdi And Macroeconomic Stabilization," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 18, pages 131-146, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Output volatility; Stochastic models; Tax effects; Natural volatility;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy

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