The behavior of emerging market sovereigns' credit default swap premiums and bond yield spreads
We test whether credit risk for Emerging Market Sovereigns is priced equally in the credit default swap (CDS) and bond markets. The parity relationship between CDS premiums and bond yield spreads (BYS), that was tested and largely confirmed in the literature, is mostly rejected. Prices below par can result in positive basis, i.e. CDS premiums that are greater than BYS and vice versa. To adjust for the non-par price, we construct the BYS implied by the term structure of CDS premiums for various maturities. We are able to restore the parity relation and confirm the equivalence of credit risk pricing in the CDS and bond markets for many countries that have bonds with non-par prices and time varying credit quality. We detect non-parity even after the adjustment mainly in countries in Latin America, where the bases are larger than the bid-ask spreads in the market. We also find that the repo rates of bonds decrease around episodes of credit quality deterioration, which helps the basis remain positive. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Volume (Year): 15 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/1076-9307/|
|Order Information:||Web: http://jws-edcv.wiley.com/jcatalog/JournalsCatalogOrder/JournalOrder?PRINT_ISSN=1076-9307|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hull, John & Predescu, Mirela & White, Alan, 2004. "The relationship between credit default swap spreads, bond yields, and credit rating announcements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2789-2811, November.
- Sanjiv Ranjan Das & Rangarajan K. Sundaram, 2000. "A Discrete-Time Approach to Arbitrage-Free Pricing of Credit Derivatives," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(1), pages 46-62, January.
- Houweling, P. & Vorst, A.C.F., 2003.
"Pricing default swaps: empirical evidence,"
Econometric Institute Research Papers
EI 2003-51, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
- Jarrow, Robert A. & Turnbull, Stuart M., 2000. "The intersection of market and credit risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 271-299, January.
- Gregory R. Duffee, 2002. "Term Premia and Interest Rate Forecasts in Affine Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 405-443, 02.
- Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
- Frank Packer & Chamaree Suthiphongchai, 2003. "Sovereign credit default swaps," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
- Duffee, Gregory R, 1999.
"Estimating the Price of Default Risk,"
Review of Financial Studies,
Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(1), pages 197-226.
- Jarrow, Robert A & Turnbull, Stuart M, 1995.
" Pricing Derivatives on Financial Securities Subject to Credit Risk,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 53-85, March.
- Robert A. Jarrow & Stuart M. Turnbull, 2008. "Pricing Derivatives on Financial Securities Subject to Credit Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 17, pages 377-409 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
- Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1999. "Modeling Term Structures of Defaultable Bonds," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 687-720.
- Jochen R. Andritzky & Manmohan Singh, 2005. "Overpricing in Emerging Market Credit-Default-Swap Contracts; Some Evidence from Recent Distress Cases," IMF Working Papers 05/125, International Monetary Fund.
- Francis A. Longstaff & Jun Pan & Lasse H. Pedersen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2011.
"How Sovereign Is Sovereign Credit Risk?,"
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics,
American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 75-103, April.
- Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985.
"A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates,"
Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March.
- Manmohan Singh & Jochen R. Andritzky, 2006. "The Pricing of Credit Default Swaps During Distress," IMF Working Papers 06/254, International Monetary Fund.
- Das, Sanjiv R. & Hanouna, Paul, 2009. "Implied recovery," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 1837-1857, November.
- Manmohan Singh, 2003. "Are Credit Default Swaps Spreads High in Emerging Markets; An Alternative Methodology for Proxying Recovery Value," IMF Working Papers 03/242, International Monetary Fund.
- Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1997. " An Econometric Model of the Term Structure of Interest-Rate Swap Yields," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1287-1321, September.
- Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1995. " A Simple Approach to Valuing Risky Fixed and Floating Rate Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(3), pages 789-819, July.
- Robert A. Jarrow, 2009. "Credit Risk Models," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 37-68, November.
- Haibin Zhu, 2004. "An empirical comparison of credit spreads between the bond market and the credit default swap market," BIS Working Papers 160, Bank for International Settlements.
- Francis A. Longstaff & Sanjay Mithal & Eric Neis, 2004.
"Corporate Yield Spreads: Default Risk or Liquidity? New Evidence from the Credit-Default Swap Market,"
NBER Working Papers
10418, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Francis A. Longstaff & Sanjay Mithal & Eric Neis, 2005. "Corporate Yield Spreads: Default Risk or Liquidity? New Evidence from the Credit Default Swap Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(5), pages 2213-2253, October.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ijf:ijfiec:v:15:y:2010:i:1:p:31-58. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.