IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedgfe/2003-25.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

What did the credit market expect of Argentina default? Evidence from default swap data

Author

Listed:
  • Frank X. Zhang

Abstract

This article explores the expectations of the credit market by developing a parsimonious default swap model, which is versatile enough to disentangle default probability from the expected recovery rate, accommodate counterparty default risk, and allow flexible correlation between state variables. We implements the model to a unique sample of default swaps on Argentine sovereign debt, and found that the risk-neutral default probability was always higher than its physical counterpart, and the wedge between the two was affected by changes in the business cycle, the U.S. and Argentine credit conditions, and the overall strength of the Argentine economy. We also found that major rating agencies had assigned over-generous ratings to the Argentine debt, and they lagged the market in downgrading the debt.

Suggested Citation

  • Frank X. Zhang, 2003. "What did the credit market expect of Argentina default? Evidence from default swap data," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-25, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2003-25
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2003/200325/200325abs.html
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2003/200325/200325pap.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. SOLNIK, Bruno & COLLIN-DUFRESNE, Pierre, 2000. "On the term structure of default premia in the Swap and Libor markets," HEC Research Papers Series 704, HEC Paris.
    2. Duffee, Gregory R, 1999. "Estimating the Price of Default Risk," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(1), pages 197-226.
    3. Patrick Houweling & Ton Vorst, 2001. "An Empirical Comparison of Default Swap Pricing Models," Finance 0112003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Dilip Madan & Haluk Unal, 1996. "Pricing the Risks of Default," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 94-16, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
    5. Gregory R. Duffee, 2002. "Term Premia and Interest Rate Forecasts in Affine Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 405-443, February.
    6. Gurdip Bakshi & Dilip B. Madan & Frank X. Zhang, 2001. "Understanding the role of recovery in default risk models: empirical comparisons and implied recovery rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-37, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. John C. Cox & Jonathan E. Ingersoll Jr. & Stephen A. Ross, 2005. "A Theory Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Sudipto Bhattacharya & George M Constantinides (ed.),Theory Of Valuation, chapter 5, pages 129-164, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    8. Gurdip Bakshi & Dilip B. Madan & Frank X. Zhang, 2001. "Investigating the sources of default risk: lessons from empirically evaluating credit risk models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-15, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Hull, John & Predescu, Mirela & White, Alan, 2004. "The relationship between credit default swap spreads, bond yields, and credit rating announcements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2789-2811, November.
    10. Darrell Duffie & Jun Pan & Kenneth Singleton, 2000. "Transform Analysis and Asset Pricing for Affine Jump-Diffusions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(6), pages 1343-1376, November.
    11. Robert A. Jarrow & Stuart M. Turnbull, 2008. "Pricing Derivatives on Financial Securities Subject to Credit Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 17, pages 377-409, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    12. Sarig, Oded & Warga, Arthur, 1989. " Some Empirical Estimates of the Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(5), pages 1351-1360, December.
    13. Pearson, N.D. & Sun, T.S., 1991. "An Empirical Examination of the Cox, Ingersoll and Ross Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Papers fb-24, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
    14. White, Halbert, 1982. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Misspecified Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 1-25, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Eyssell, Thomas & Fung, Hung-Gay & Zhang, Gaiyan, 2013. "Determinants and price discovery of China sovereign credit default swaps," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 1-15.
    2. Marco Realdon, 2007. "A Two Factor Black-Karasinski Credit Default Swap Pricing Model (forthcoming in the Icfai Journal of Derivatives Markets, Vol IV, No 4, October 2007; all copyrights rest with the Icfai University Pres," Discussion Papers 07/25, Department of Economics, University of York.
    3. Zinna, Gabriele, 2014. "Identifying risks in emerging market sovereign and corporate bond spreads," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 1-22.
    4. Adam B. Ashcraft & Joao A. C. Santos, 2006. "Has the development of the structured credit market affected the cost of corporate debt?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
    5. Zinna, Gabriele, 2013. "Sovereign default risk premia: Evidence from the default swap market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 15-35.
    6. Guarin, Alexander & Liu, Xiaoquan & Ng, Wing Lon, 2011. "Enhancing credit default swap valuation with meshfree methods," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 214(3), pages 805-813, November.
    7. Carr, Peter & Wu, Liuren, 2007. "Theory and evidence on the dynamic interactions between sovereign credit default swaps and currency options," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2383-2403, August.
    8. Aït-Sahalia, Yacine & Laeven, Roger J.A. & Pelizzon, Loriana, 2014. "Mutual excitation in Eurozone sovereign CDS," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 183(2), pages 151-167.
    9. Jansen, Jeroen & Das, Sanjiv R. & Fabozzi, Frank J., 2018. "Local volatility and the recovery rate of credit default swaps," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 1-29.
    10. Longstaff, Francis A. & Mithal, Sanjay & Neis, Eric, 2004. "Corporate Yield Spreads: Default Risk or Liquidity? New Evidence from the Credit-Default Swap Market, previously titled: "The Credit-Default Swap Market: Is Credit Protection Priced Correctly?&qu," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt8gn7h03k, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    11. Manmohan Singh & Jochen R. Andritzky, 2006. "The Pricing of Credit Default Swaps During Distress," IMF Working Papers 06/254, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Das, Sanjiv R. & Hanouna, Paul, 2009. "Implied recovery," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 1837-1857, November.
    13. Francis A. Longstaff & Jun Pan & Lasse H. Pedersen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2011. "How Sovereign Is Sovereign Credit Risk?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 75-103, April.
    14. Juttner, D. Johannes & Chung, David & Leung, Wayne, 2006. "Emerging market bond returns--An investor perspective," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 105-121, April.
    15. Min Zhang & Adam W. Kolkiewicz & Tony S. Wirjanto & Xindan Li, 2015. "The impacts of financial crisis on sovereign credit risk analysis in Asia and Europe," International Journal of Financial Engineering (IJFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 2(03), pages 1-57.
    16. Sanjiv Das, 2007. "Basel II: Correlation Related Issues," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 32(1), pages 17-38, October.
    17. Adam B. Ashcraft & Joao A. C. Santos, 2007. "Has the credit derivatives swap market lowered the cost of corporate debt?," Staff Reports 290, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Francis A. Longstaff & Sanjay Mithal & Eric Neis, 2005. "Corporate Yield Spreads: Default Risk or Liquidity? New Evidence from the Credit Default Swap Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(5), pages 2213-2253, October.
    2. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    3. Duffie, Darrell, 2005. "Credit risk modeling with affine processes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 2751-2802, November.
    4. Maclachlan, Iain C, 2007. "An empirical study of corporate bond pricing with unobserved capital structure dynamics," MPRA Paper 28416, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Zinna, Gabriele, 2013. "Sovereign default risk premia: Evidence from the default swap market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 15-35.
    6. Michael Adler & Jeong Song, 2010. "The behavior of emerging market sovereigns' credit default swap premiums and bond yield spreads," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 31-58.
    7. Gurdip Bakshi & Dilip B. Madan & Frank X. Zhang, 2001. "Understanding the role of recovery in default risk models: empirical comparisons and implied recovery rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-37, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Lekkos, Ilias, 2007. "Modelling multiple term structures of defaultable bonds with common and idiosyncratic state variables," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 783-817, December.
    9. Kris Jacobs & Xiaofei Li, 2008. "Modeling the Dynamics of Credit Spreads with Stochastic Volatility," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(6), pages 1176-1188, June.
    10. repec:wyi:journl:002109 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Jonas Vogt, 2017. "Doubly Stochastic Reduced Form Credit Risk Model and Default Probability Uncertainty – a Technical Toolkit," Journal of Statistical and Econometric Methods, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 6(2), pages 1-2.
    12. Duffee, Gregory R, 1999. "Estimating the Price of Default Risk," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(1), pages 197-226.
    13. Liu, Jun & Longstaff, Francis A. & Mandell, Ravit E., 2000. "The Market Price of Credit Risk: An Empirical Analysis of Interest Rate Swap Spreads," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt0zw4f9w6, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    14. Longstaff, Francis A. & Mithal, Sanjay & Neis, Eric, 2004. "Corporate Yield Spreads: Default Risk or Liquidity? New Evidence from the Credit-Default Swap Market, previously titled: "The Credit-Default Swap Market: Is Credit Protection Priced Correctly?&qu," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt8gn7h03k, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    15. Abel Elizalde, 2006. "Credit Risk Models I: Default Correlation in Intensity Models," Working Papers wp2006_0605, CEMFI.
    16. Hongming Huang & Yildiray Yildirim, 2008. "Leverage, options liabilities, and corporate bond pricing," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 245-276, October.
    17. Li Chen & H. Vincent Poor, 2003. "Credit Risk Modeling and the Term Structure of Credit Spreads," Finance 0312009, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Liu, Sheen & Shi, Jian & Wang, Junbo & Wu, Chunchi, 2009. "The determinants of corporate bond yields," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 85-109, February.
    19. Ramaprasad Bhar, 2010. "Stochastic Filtering With Applications In Finance:," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 7736, January.
    20. Liu, Sheen & Shi, Jian & Wang, Junbo & Wu, Chunchi, 2007. "How much of the corporate bond spread is due to personal taxes?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(3), pages 599-636, September.
    21. Kwamie Dunbar, 2008. "US corporate default swap valuation: the market liquidity hypothesis and autonomous credit risk," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(3), pages 321-334.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit - Argentina; Swaps (Finance);

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2003-25. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/frbgvus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.