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Term Structure, Inflation, and Real Activity

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  • Berardi, Andrea

Abstract

This paper estimates an internally consistent structural model that imposes cross-sectional restrictions on the dynamics of the term structure of interest rates, inflation, and output growth. Distinct from previous term structure settings, this model introduces both time-varying central tendencies and a stochastic conditional mean of output growth. The estimation of the model, which is based on U.S. data over a 1960 to 2005 sample period, provides reliable estimates for the implicit term structures of real interest rates, expected inflation rates, and inflation risk premia, as well as for expectations of macroeconomic variables. The model has better out-of-sample forecasting properties than a number of alternative models, and it contradicts the puzzling evidence that during the “Great Moderation†in inflation subsequent to the mid-1980s, the forecasting ability of structural models deteriorated with respect to atheoretic statistical models.

Suggested Citation

  • Berardi, Andrea, 2009. "Term Structure, Inflation, and Real Activity," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(4), pages 987-1011, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:44:y:2009:i:04:p:987-1011_99
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2008. "Phillips curve inflation forecasts," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    2. Vasilios Plakandaras & Periklis Gogas & Theophilos Papadimitriou & Rangan Gupta, 2017. "The Informational Content of the Term Spread in Forecasting the US Inflation Rate: A Nonlinear Approach," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(2), pages 109-121, March.
    3. Leo Krippner, 2009. "A theoretical foundation for the Nelson and Siegel class of yield curve models," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2009/10, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    4. Leo Krippner, 2012. "Modifying Gaussian term structure models when interest rates are near the zero lower bound (this is a revised version of CAMA working paper 36/2011)," CAMA Working Papers 2012-05, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    5. Marco Lyrio & Hans Dewachter & Konstantijn Maes, 2006. "A joint model for the term structure of interest rates and the macroeconomy," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(4), pages 439-462.
    6. Argyropoulos Efthymios & Tzavalis Elias, 2015. "Term spread regressions of the rational expectations hypothesis of the term structure allowing for risk premium effects," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(1), pages 49-70, February.
    7. He, Xiaoli & Jacobs, Jan & Kuper, Gerard & Ligthart, Jenny, 2013. "On the impact of the global financial crisis on the euro area," Research Report 13011-EEF, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    8. Argyropoulos, Efthymios & Tzavalis, Elias, 2015. "Real term structure forecasts of consumption growth," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 208-222.
    9. Marco Lyrio & Hans Dewachter, 2004. "Filtering Long-Run Inflation Expectations with a Structural Macro Model of the Yield Curve," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 188, Society for Computational Economics.
    10. Leo Krippner, 2011. "Modifying Gaussian term structure models when interest rates are near the zero lower bound," CAMA Working Papers 2011-36, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    11. Unn Lindholm & Marcus Mossfeldt & Pär Stockhammar, 2020. "Forecasting inflation in Sweden," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 37(1), pages 39-68, April.
    12. Andrea Berardi, 2013. "Inflation Risk Premia, Yield Volatility and Macro Factors," Working Papers 27/2013, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
    13. Doshi, Hitesh & Jacobs, Kris & Liu, Rui, 2018. "Macroeconomic determinants of the term structure: Long-run and short-run dynamics," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 99-122.
    14. Elias, Nikolaos & Smyrnakis, Dimitris & Tzavalis, Elias, 2022. "Predicting future exchange rate changes based on interest rates and holding-period returns differentials net of the forward risk premium effects," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 694-715.
    15. Argyropoulos, Efthymios & Tzavalis, Elias, 2021. "The influence of real interest rates and risk premium effects on the ability of the nominal term structure to forecast inflation," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 785-796.

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