A theoretical foundation for the Nelson and Siegel class of yield curve models, and an empirical application to U.S. yield curve dynamics
This article establishes that most yield curve models within the popular Nelson and Siegel (1987, hereafter NS) class may be obtained as a formal Taylor approximation to the dynamic component of the generic Gaussian affine term structure model outlined in Dai and Singleton (2002). That fundamental theoretical foundation provides an assurance to users of NS models that they correspond to a well-accepted set of principles and assumptions for modeling the yield curve and its dynamics. Indeed, arbitrage-free NS models will parsimoniously and reliably represent the data generated by any Gaussian affine term structure model regardless of its true number of underlying factors and specification, and even non-arbitrage-free NS models will adequately capture the dynamics of the state variables. Combined with the well-established practical benefits of applying NS models, the theoretical foundation provides a compelling case for applying NS models as standard tools for yield curve modeling and analysis in economics and finance. As an illustration, this article develops a two-factor arbitrage-free NS model and applies it to testing for changes in United States yield curve dynamics. The results confirm those of Rudebusch and Wu (2007) based on a latent two-factor essentially affine term structure model: there was a material change in the behavior of the yield curve between the sample prior to 1988 and the sample from 1988 onwards.
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- Hördahl, Peter & Tristani, Oreste & Vestin, David, 2004.
"A joint econometric model of macroeconomic and term structure dynamics,"
Working Paper Series
0405, European Central Bank.
- Hordahl, Peter & Tristani, Oreste & Vestin, David, 2006. "A joint econometric model of macroeconomic and term-structure dynamics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 405-444.
- Peter Hoerdahl & Oreste Tristani, 2004. "A joint econometric model of macroeconomic and term structure dynamics," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 379, Econometric Society.
- Peter Hordahl & Oreste Tristani & David Vestin, 2004. "A joint econometric model of macroeconomic and term structure dynamics," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 48, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
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