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Testing for Structural Breaks in Small Samples

Author

Listed:
  • Sergei Antoshin
  • Mr. Andrew Berg
  • Mr. Marcos R Souto

Abstract

In a recent paper, Bai and Perron (2006) demonstrate that their approach for testing for multiple structural breaks in time series works well in large samples, but they found substantial deviations in both the size and power of their tests in smaller samples. We propose modifying their methodology to deal with small samples by using Monte Carlo simulations to determine sample-specific critical values under the each time the test is run. We draw on the results of our simulations to offer practical suggestions on handling serial correlation, model misspecification, and the use of alternative test statistics for sequential testing. We show that, for most types of data generating processes in samples with as low as 50 observations, our proposed modifications perform substantially better.

Suggested Citation

  • Sergei Antoshin & Mr. Andrew Berg & Mr. Marcos R Souto, 2008. "Testing for Structural Breaks in Small Samples," IMF Working Papers 2008/075, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2008/075
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    Cited by:

    1. Belke, Angar & Gros, Daniel & Osowski, Thomas, 2017. "The effectiveness of the Fed’s quantitative easing policy: New evidence based on international interest rate differentials," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PB), pages 335-349.
    2. Mohammad A. Dharmawan & Dominicus S. Priyarsono & Bagus Sartono, 2017. "Impacts of Oil Price Shock on Sector Returns with Regime-Switching Approach: New Evidence from Indonesian Stock Market," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(5), pages 44-59.
    3. Bill Martin, 2020. "Resurrecting the UK Corporate Sector Accounts," Working Papers wp519, Centre for Business Research, University of Cambridge.
    4. Berg, Andrew & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Zettelmeyer, Jeromin, 2012. "What makes growth sustained?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 149-166.
    5. Richard Bluhm & Denis de Crombrugghe & Adam Szirmai, 0. "Do Weak Institutions Prolong Crises? On the Identification, Characteristics, and Duration of Declines during Economic Slumps," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 34(3), pages 810-832.
    6. Eriksen, Steffen & Wiese, Rasmus, 2019. "Policy induced increases in private healthcare financing provide short-term relief of total healthcare expenditure growth: Evidence from OECD countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 71-82.
    7. Zümre Özdemir Güler & Mehmet Akif Bakýr, 2019. "Performance of Methods Determining Structural Break in Linear Regression Models," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 11(2), pages 70-83, September.
    8. Andros Kourtellos & Charalambos G. Tsangarides, 2022. "Robust Correlates of Growth Spells: Do Inequality and Redistribution Matter?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(6), pages 1302-1328, December.
    9. Danko Tarabar & Joshua C. Hall, 2015. "The Seventeenth Amendment, Senate ideology and the growth of government," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(8), pages 637-640, May.
    10. Massimo Guidolin & Alexei Orlov, 2020. "Are Unconventional Monetary Policies a Priced Risk Factor for Hedge Fund Strategies?," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 20146, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    11. Wiese, Rasmus, 2014. "What triggers reforms in OECD countries? Improved reform measurement and evidence from the healthcare sector," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 332-352.
    12. Emanuele Russo & Neil Foster-McGregor & Bart Verpagen, 2019. "Characterizing growth instability: new evidence on unit roots and structural breaks in long run time series," LEM Papers Series 2019/29, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    13. Mr. Chris Papageorgiou & Mr. Andrew Berg & Ms. Catherine A Pattillo & Mr. Nikola Spatafora, 2010. "The End of An Era? the Medium- and Long-Term Effects of the Global Crisison Growth in Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 2010/205, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Gootjes, Bram & de Haan, Jakob, 2022. "Do fiscal rules need budget transparency to be effective?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    15. Emanuele Russo & Neil Foster-McGregor, 2022. "Characterizing growth instability: new evidence on unit roots and structural breaks in countries’ long run trajectories," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 713-756, April.
    16. Mr. Charalambos G Tsangarides, 2012. "Determinants of Growth Spells: Is Africa Different?," IMF Working Papers 2012/227, International Monetary Fund.

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