IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cpr/ceprdp/12091.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Supply- and Demand-side Factors in Global Banking

Author

Listed:
  • Amiti, Mary
  • McGuire, Patrick M.
  • Weinstein, David E.

Abstract

What is the role for supply and demand forces in determining movements in international banking flows? Answering this question is crucial for understanding the international transmission of financial shocks and formulating policy. This paper addresses the question by using the method developed in Amiti and Weinstein (forthcoming) to exactly decompose the growth in international bank credit into common shocks, idiosyncratic supply shocks and idiosyncratic demand shocks for the period 2000-2016. A striking feature of the global banking flows data can be characterized by what we term the "Anna Karenina Principle": all healthy credit relationships are alike, each unhealthy credit relationship is unhealthy in its own way. During non-crisis years, bank flows are well-explained by a common global factor and a local demand factor. But during times of crisis flows are affected by idiosyncratic supply shocks to a borrower country's creditor banks. This has important implications for why standard models break down during crises.

Suggested Citation

  • Amiti, Mary & McGuire, Patrick M. & Weinstein, David E., 2017. "Supply- and Demand-side Factors in Global Banking," CEPR Discussion Papers 12091, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12091
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=12091
    Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Papaioannou, Elias & Perri, Fabrizio, 2013. "Global banks and crisis transmission," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 495-510.
    2. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2012. "External adjustment and the global crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 252-265.
    3. Peek, Joe & Rosengren, Eric S, 1997. "The International Transmission of Financial Shocks: The Case of Japan," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(4), pages 495-505, September.
    4. Patrick McGuire & Goetz von Peter, 2012. "The Dollar Shortage in Global Banking and the International Policy Response," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(2), pages 155-178, June.
    5. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2012. "Capital flows, push versus pull factors and the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 341-356.
    6. Patrick McGuire & Philip Wooldridge, 2005. "The BIS consolidated banking statistics: structure, uses and recent enhancements," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    7. Stefan Afdjiev & Zsolt Kuti & Elod Takáts, 2012. "The euro area crisis and cross-border bank lending to emerging markets," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    8. Asim Ijaz Khwaja & Atif Mian, 2008. "Tracing the Impact of Bank Liquidity Shocks: Evidence from an Emerging Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1413-1442, September.
    9. Koepke, Robin, 2015. "What Drives Capital Flows to Emerging Markets? A Survey of the Empirical Literature," MPRA Paper 62770, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Stefan Avdjiev & Elod Takáts, 2014. "Cross-border bank lending during the taper tantrum: the role of emerging market fundamentals," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    11. Nicola Cetorelli & Linda S Goldberg, 2011. "Global Banks and International Shock Transmission: Evidence from the Crisis," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 59(1), pages 41-76, April.
    12. Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti & Cédric Tille, 2011. "The great retrenchment: international capital flows during the global financial crisis [‘The great trade collapse: what caused it and what does it mean?’]," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 26(66), pages 289-346.
    13. Cerutti, Eugenio & Hale, Galina & Minoiu, Camelia, 2015. "Financial crises and the composition of cross-border lending," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 60-81.
    14. Eugenio Cerutti & Stijn Claessens & Lev Ratnovski, 2017. "Global liquidity and cross-border bank flows," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 32(89), pages 81-125.
    15. Mary Amiti & David E. Weinstein, 2011. "Exports and Financial Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 126(4), pages 1841-1877.
    16. McCauley, Robert & McGuire, Patrick & von Peter, Goetz, 2012. "After the global financial crisis: From international to multinational banking?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 7-23.
    17. Cerutti, Eugenio, 2015. "Drivers of cross-border banking exposures during the crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 340-357.
    18. Mr. Gian M Milesi-Ferretti & Mr. Philip R. Lane, 2014. "Global Imbalances and External Adjustment after the Crisis," IMF Working Papers 2014/151, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Valentina Bruno & Hyun Song Shin, 2015. "Cross-Border Banking and Global Liquidity," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 82(2), pages 535-564.
    20. Naohiko Baba & Robert N McCauley & Srichander Ramaswamy, 2009. "US dollar money market funds and non-US banks," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    21. Patrick McGuire & Nikola Tarashev, 2008. "Bank health and lending to emerging markets," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Scheubel, Beatrice & Stracca, Livio & Tille, Cédric, 2019. "The global financial cycle and capital flow episodes: a wobbly link?," Working Paper Series 2337, European Central Bank.
    2. Avdjiev, Stefan & Hale, Galina, 2019. "U.S. monetary policy and fluctuations of international bank lending," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 251-268.
    3. Cingano, Federico & Hassan, Fadi, 2020. "International financial flows and misallocation," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 108460, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Giorgio Barba Navaretti & Giacomo Calzolari & Alberto Franco Pozzolo & Maria Teresa Trentinaglia Daverio, 2019. "Few Large with Many Small: Banks Size Distribution and Cross-Border Financial Linkages," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 56(3), pages 229-258, December.
    5. Shim, Ilhyock & Shin, Kwanho, 2021. "Financial stress in lender countries and capital outflows from emerging market economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    6. Sánchez Serrano, Antonio, 2021. "The impact of non-performing loans on bank lending in Europe: An empirical analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    7. Avdjiev, Stefan & Aysun, Uluc & Hepp, Ralf, 2019. "What drives local lending by global banks?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 54-75.
    8. Federico Cingano & Fadi Hassan, 2020. "International financial flows and misallocation," CEP Discussion Papers dp1697, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    9. Catherine Koch & Eli M Remolona, 2018. "Common lenders in emerging Asia: their changing roles in three crises," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    10. Becker, Chris & Ossandon Busch, Matias & Tonzer, Lena, 2020. "Macroprudential policy and intra-group dynamics: The effects of reserve requirements in Brazil," IWH Discussion Papers 21/2017, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mary Amiti & Patrick McGuire & David E. Weinstein, 2019. "International Bank Flows and the Global Financial Cycle," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(1), pages 61-108, March.
    2. Stijn Claessens, 2017. "Global Banking: Recent Developments and Insights from Research," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(4), pages 1513-1555.
    3. McCauley, Robert N. & Bénétrix, Agustín S. & McGuire, Patrick M. & von Peter, Goetz, 2019. "Financial deglobalisation in banking?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 116-131.
    4. Stijn Claessens & Neeltje van Horen, 2015. "The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Banking Globalization," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 63(4), pages 868-918, November.
    5. Choi, Sangyup & Furceri, Davide, 2019. "Uncertainty and cross-border banking flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 260-274.
    6. Sangyup Choi & Davide Furceri & Chansik Yoon, 2021. "International Fiscal-Financial Spillovers:the Effect of Fiscal Shocks on Cross-Border Bank Lending," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 259-290, April.
    7. Stefan Avdjiev & Elod Takats, 2016. "Monetary policy spillovers and currency networks in cross-border bank lending," BIS Working Papers 549, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Cerutti, Eugenio & Osorio-Buitron, Carolina, 2020. "US vs. euro area: Who drives cross-border bank lending to EMs?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    9. Bouvatier, Vincent & Delatte, Anne-Laure, 2014. "International Banking: the Isolation of the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 10264, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Doerr, Sebastian & Schaz, Philipp, 2021. "Geographic diversification and bank lending during crises," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(3), pages 768-788.
    11. Eugenio Cerutti & Stijn Claessens & Andrew K. Rose, 2019. "How Important is the Global Financial Cycle? Evidence from Capital Flows," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(1), pages 24-60, March.
    12. Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli & Horváth, Bálint L. & Huizinga, Harry, 2020. "Foreign banks and international transmission of monetary policy: Evidence from the syndicated loan market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    13. Alper, Koray & Altunok, Fatih & Çapacıoğlu, Tanju & Ongena, Steven, 2020. "The Effect of Unconventional Monetary Policy on Cross-Border Bank Loans: Evidence from an Emerging Market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    14. Krogstrup, Signe & Tille, Cédric, 2018. "Foreign currency bank funding and global factors," Kiel Working Papers 2104, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    15. Gao Meng & Eric Wincoop, 2020. "A Decomposition of International Capital Flows," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(2), pages 362-389, June.
    16. Niepmann, Friederike, 2015. "Banking across borders," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 244-265.
    17. Stefan Avdjiev & Valentina Bruno & Catherine Koch & Hyun Song Shin, 2019. "The Dollar Exchange Rate as a Global Risk Factor: Evidence from Investment," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(1), pages 151-173, March.
    18. Li, He & Refalo, James & Maisondieu-Laforge, Olivier, 2021. "National corruption and international banking," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    19. Cerutti, Eugenio & Claessens, Stijn & Puy, Damien, 2019. "Push factors and capital flows to emerging markets: why knowing your lender matters more than fundamentals," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 133-149.
    20. Avdjiev, Stefan & Aysun, Uluc & Hepp, Ralf, 2019. "What drives local lending by global banks?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 54-75.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12091. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://www.cepr.org .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cepr.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.