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Global Imbalances and External Adjustment After the Crisis

In: Global Liquidity, Spillovers to Emerging Markets and Policy Responses

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  • Philip R. Lane

    (Trinity College Dublin and CEPR)

  • Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti

    (International Monetary Fund and CEPR)

Abstract

This paper has two objectives. First, it reviews the recent dynamics of global imbalances (both “flow” and “stock” imbalances), with a special focus on the shifting position of Latin America in the global distribution. Second, it examines the cross-country variation in external adjustment over 2008-2012. In particular, it shows how pre-crisis external imbalances have strong predictive power for post-crisis macroeconomic outcomes, allowing for variation across different exchange rate regimes. We emphasize that the bulk of external adjustment has taken the form of “expenditure reduction”, with “expenditure switching” only playing a limited role.
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Suggested Citation

  • Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2015. "Global Imbalances and External Adjustment After the Crisis," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Claudio Raddatz & Diego Saravia & Jaume Ventura (ed.), Global Liquidity, Spillovers to Emerging Markets and Policy Responses, edition 1, volume 20, chapter 4, pages 105-142 Central Bank of Chile.
  • Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchsb:v20c04pp105-142
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chinn, Menzie D. & Prasad, Eswar S., 2003. "Medium-term determinants of current accounts in industrial and developing countries: an empirical exploration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 47-76, January.
    2. Andrew K. Rose & Mark M. Spiegel, 2010. "Cross‐Country Causes And Consequences Of The 2008 Crisis: International Linkages And American Exposure," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(3), pages 340-363, August.
    3. Guillermo A. Calvo, 1998. "Capital Flows and Capital-Market Crises: The Simple Economics of Sudden Stops," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 1, pages 35-54, November.
    4. Rose, Andrew K. & Spiegel, Mark M., 2011. "Cross-country causes and consequences of the crisis: An update," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 309-324, April.
    5. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2001. "The external wealth of nations: measures of foreign assets and liabilities for industrial and developing countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 263-294, December.
    6. Frankel, Jeffrey & Saravelos, George, 2012. "Can leading indicators assess country vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008–09 global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 216-231.
    7. Rose, Andrew K., 2014. "Surprising similarities: Recent monetary regimes of small economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PA), pages 5-27.
    8. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2005. "Global Current Account Imbalances and Exchange Rate Adjustments," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 36(1), pages 67-146.
    9. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2007. "The external wealth of nations mark II: Revised and extended estimates of foreign assets and liabilities, 1970-2004," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 223-250, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Didier, Tatiana & Llovet, Ruth & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2017. "International financial integration of East Asia and Pacific," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 52-66.
    2. Jeroen Hessel, 2019. "Medium-term asymmetric fluctuations and EMU as an optimum currency area," DNB Working Papers 644, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    3. Bénétrix, Agustin S. & Lane, Philip R. & Shambaugh, Jay C., 2015. "International currency exposures, valuation effects and the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(S1), pages 98-109.
    4. Amiti, Mary & McGuire, Patrick M. & Weinstein, David E., 2017. "Supply- and demand-side factors in global banking," Staff Reports 818, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    5. Sauré, Philip, 2017. "Time-intensive R&D and unbalanced trade," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 229-244.
    6. Ming Zhang & Xiaofen Tan, 2015. "Vanishing of China's Twin Surpluses and Its Policy Implications," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 23(1), pages 101-120, January.
    7. Ward, Felix & Chen, Yao, 2016. "Rigid relations: External adjustment under the Gold Standard (1880-1913)," Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145930, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    8. Theodoros S. Papaspyrou, 2015. "EMU 2.0 Drawing Lessons From the Crisis - a New Framework For Stability and Growth," Working Papers 192, Bank of Greece.

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