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Overcoming the Fear of Free Falling: Monetary Policy Graduation in Emerging Markets

  • Carlos A. Vegh
  • Guillermo Vuletin

Developing countries have typically pursued procyclical macroeconomic policies, which tend to amplify the underlying business cycle (the "when-it-rains-it-pours" phenomenon). There is, however, evidence to suggest that about a third of developing countries have shifted from procyclical to countercyclical fiscal policy over the last decade. We show that the same is true of monetary policy: around 35 percent of developing countries have become countercyclical over the last decade. We provide evidence that links procyclical monetary policy in developing countries to what we refer as the "fear of free falling;" that is, the need to raise interest rates in bad times to defend the domestic currency.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 18175.

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Date of creation: Jun 2012
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18175
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  1. Vulentin, Guillermo & Vegh, Carlos A & Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2012. "On Graduation from Fiscal Procyclicality," Scholarly Articles 8694931, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
  2. Ilzetzki, Ethan, 2006. "Rent seeing distortions and fiscal procyclicality," MPRA Paper 8726, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Dec 2007.
  3. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2011. "A Solution to Fiscal Procyclicality: The Structural Budget Institutions Pioneered by Chile," NBER Working Papers 16945, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Eduardo Morón & Diego Winkelried, 2003. "Monetary Policy Rules for Financially Vulnerable Economies," IMF Working Papers 03/39, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Menzie D. Chinn & Guy Meredith, 2004. "Monetary Policy and Long-Horizon Uncovered Interest Parity," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(3), pages 409-430, November.
  6. Talvi, Ernesto & Vegh, Carlos A., 2005. "Tax base variability and procyclical fiscal policy in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 156-190, October.
  7. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2004. "The modern history of exchange rate arrangements: A reinterpretation," MPRA Paper 14070, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela & Vegh, Carlos, 2004. "When it rains, it pours: Procyclical capital flows and macroeconomic policies," MPRA Paper 13883, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Hnatkovska, Viktoria & Lahiri, Amartya & Vegh, Carlos A., 2013. "Interest rate and the exchange rate: A non-monotonic tale," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 68-93.
  10. Flood, Robert P. & Jeanne, Olivier, 2005. "An interest rate defense of a fixed exchange rate?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 471-484, July.
  11. Tabellini, Guido & Alesina, Alberto, 1990. "A Positive Theory of Fiscal Deficits and Government Debt," Scholarly Articles 3612769, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  12. Michael Gavin & Roberto Perotti, 1997. "Fiscal Policy in Latin America," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 11-72 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Akram, Farooq & Rime, Dagfinn & Sarno, Lucio, 2008. "Arbitrage in the Foreign Exchange Market: Turning on the Microscope," CEPR Discussion Papers 6878, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1982. "Are Real Interest Rates Equal Across Countries? An Empirical Investigation of International Parity Conditions," NBER Working Papers 1048, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Carlos A. Vegh & Guillermo Vuletin, 2012. "How is Tax Policy Conducted over the Business Cycle?," NBER Working Papers 17753, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Calvo, Guillermo A & Vegh, Carlos A, 1995. "Fighting Inflation with High Interest Rates: The Small Open Economy Case under Flexible Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(1), pages 49-66, February.
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