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Overcoming the Fear of Free Falling: Monetary Policy Graduation in Emerging Markets

  • Carlos A. Vegh
  • Guillermo Vuletin

Developing countries have typically pursued procyclical macroeconomic policies, which tend to amplify the underlying business cycle (the "when-it-rains-it-pours" phenomenon). There is, however, evidence to suggest that about a third of developing countries have shifted from procyclical to countercyclical fiscal policy over the last decade. We show that the same is true of monetary policy: around 35 percent of developing countries have become countercyclical over the last decade. We provide evidence that links procyclical monetary policy in developing countries to what we refer as the "fear of free falling;" that is, the need to raise interest rates in bad times to defend the domestic currency.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 18175.

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Date of creation: Jun 2012
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18175
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  1. Vulentin, Guillermo & Vegh, Carlos A & Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2012. "On Graduation from Fiscal Procyclicality," Scholarly Articles 8694931, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
  2. Jeffrey Frankel, 2011. "A Solution to Fiscal Procyclicality: the Structural Budget Institutions Pioneered by Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 604, Central Bank of Chile.
  3. Alesina, Alberto & Tabellini, Guido, 1990. "A Positive Theory of Fiscal Deficits and Government Debt," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(3), pages 403-14, July.
  4. Menzie D. Chinn & Guy Meredith, 2004. "Monetary Policy and Long-Horizon Uncovered Interest Parity," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(3), pages 409-430, November.
  5. Moron, Eduardo & Winkelried, Diego, 2005. "Monetary policy rules for financially vulnerable economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 23-51, February.
  6. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2004. "The modern history of exchange rate arrangements: A reinterpretation," MPRA Paper 14070, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Akram, Q. Farooq & Rime, Dagfinn & Sarno, Lucio, 2006. "Arbitrage in the Foreign Exchange Market: Turning on the Microscope," SIFR Research Report Series 42, Institute for Financial Research.
  8. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart & Carlos A. Vegh, 2004. "When it Rains, it Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Policies," NBER Working Papers 10780, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Michael Gavin & Roberto Perotti, 1997. "Fiscal Policy in Latin America," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 11-72 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Talvi, Ernesto & Vegh, Carlos A., 2005. "Tax base variability and procyclical fiscal policy in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 156-190, October.
  11. Flood, Robert P & Jeanne, Olivier, 2000. "An Interest Rate Defence of a Fixed Exchange Rate?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2507, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Mishkin, Frederic S, 1984. " Are Real Interest Rates Equal across Countries? An Empirical Investigation of International Parity Conditions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(5), pages 1345-57, December.
  13. Viktoria Hnatkovska & Amartya Lahiri & Carlos A. Vegh, 2008. "Interest Rates and the Exchange Rate: A Non-Monotonic Tale," NBER Working Papers 13925, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Ilzetzki, Ethan, 2006. "Rent seeing distortions and fiscal procyclicality," MPRA Paper 8726, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Dec 2007.
  15. Carlos A. Vegh & Guillermo Vuletin, 2012. "How is Tax Policy Conducted over the Business Cycle?," NBER Working Papers 17753, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Calvo, Guillermo A & Vegh, Carlos A, 1995. "Fighting Inflation with High Interest Rates: The Small Open Economy Case under Flexible Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(1), pages 49-66, February.
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