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A New Dilemma: Capital Controls and Monetary Policy in Sudden-Stop Economies

Author

Listed:
  • Michael B. Devereux

    (University of British Columbia)

  • Eric R. Young

    (University of Virginia)

  • Changhua Yu

    (Peking University)

Abstract

The dangers of high capital flow volatility and sudden stops have led economists to promote the use of capital controls as an addition to monetary policy in emerging market economies. This paper studies the benefits of capital controls and monetary policy in an open economy with financial frictions, nominal rigidities, and sudden stops. We focus on a time-consistent policy equilibrium. We find that during a crisis, an optimal monetary policy should sharply diverge from price stability. Without commitment, policymakers will also tax capital inflows in a crisis. But this is not optimal from an ex-ante social welfare perspective. An outcome without capital inflow taxes, using optimal monetary policy alone to respond to crises, is superior in welfare terms, but not time-consistent. If policy commitment were in place, capital inflows would be subsidized during crises. We also show that an optimal policy will never involve macro-prudential capital inflow taxes, or a departure from price stability, as a precaution against the risk of future crises (whether or not commitment is available).

Suggested Citation

  • Michael B. Devereux & Eric R. Young & Changhua Yu, 2016. "A New Dilemma: Capital Controls and Monetary Policy in Sudden-Stop Economies," Working Papers 032016, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:032016
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    12. Gordon H. Hanson, 2012. "The Rise of Middle Kingdoms: Emerging Economies in Global Trade," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 41-64, Spring.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kristina Bluwstein & Fabio Canova, 2016. "Beggar-Thy-Neighbor? The International Effects of ECB Unconventional Monetary Policy Measures," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(3), pages 69-120, September.
    2. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé & Martín Uribe, 2017. "Adjustment to small, large, and sunspot shocks in open economies with stock collateral constraints," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 35(82), pages 2-9, April.
    3. repec:eee:moneco:v:103:y:2019:i:c:p:52-74 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. COULIBALY, Louphou, 2018. "Monetary policy in sudden stop-prone economies," Cahiers de recherche 2018-03, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    5. McNelis, Paul D., 2016. "Optimal policy rules at home, crisis and quantitative easing abroad," BOFIT Discussion Papers 15/2016, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    6. repec:sgh:gosnar:y:2017:i:6:p:5-29 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Siming Liu, 2018. "Spending Multiplier during Sudden Stop Crises," 2018 Meeting Papers 226, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé & Martín Uribe, 2017. "Adjustment to small, large, and sunspot shocks in open economies with stock collateral constraints," Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 35(82), pages 86-95, April.
    9. Siming Liu, 2018. "Government Spending during Sudden Stop Crises," CAEPR Working Papers 2018-002, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    10. repec:chb:bcchsb:v25c08pp279-324 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. repec:pal:imfecr:v:65:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1057_s41308-017-0033-5 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sudden stops; Pecuniary externality; Monetary policy; Capital controls; Time-consistency;

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F38 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Financial Policy: Financial Transactions Tax; Capital Controls
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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