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An ergodic theory of sovereign default

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  • Pierri, Damian Rene
  • Seoane, Hernán

Abstract

We present the conditions under which the dynamics of a sovereign default model of private external debt are stationary, ergodic and globally stable. As our results are constructive, the model can be used for the accurate computation of global long run stylized facts. We show that default can be used to derive a stable unconditional distribution (i.e., a stable stochastic steady state), one for each possible event, which in turn allows us to characterize globally positive probability paths. We show that the stable and the ergodic distribution are actually the same object. We found that there are 3 type of paths: non-sustainable and sustainable; among this last category trajectories can be either stable or unstable. In the absence of default, non-sustainable and unstable paths generate explosive trajectories for debt. By deriving the notion of stable state space, we show that the government can use the default of private external debt as a stabilization policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Pierri, Damian Rene & Seoane, Hernán, 2022. "An ergodic theory of sovereign default," UC3M Working papers. Economics 36164, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
  • Handle: RePEc:cte:werepe:36164
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Default;

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General

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