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Self-Fulfilling Credit Cycles

  • Costas Azariadis

    ()

    (Washington University, Department of Economics, USA)

  • Leo Kaas

    ()

    (University of Konstanz, Department Economics, Germany)

This paper argues that self-fulfilling beliefs in credit conditions can generate endogenously persistent business cycle dynamics. We develop a tractable dynamic general equilibrium model with idiosyncratic firm productivity shocks. Capital from less productive firms is lent to more productive ones in the form of credit secured by collateral and also as unsecured credit based on reputation. A dynamic complementarity between current and future credit constraints permits uncorrelated sunspot shocks to trigger persistent aggregate fluctuations in debt, factor productivity and output. In a calibrated version we compare the features of sunspot cycles with those generated by shocks to economic fundamentals.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Konstanz in its series Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz with number 2012-16.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: 20 Sep 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:knz:dpteco:1216
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  1. Farmer Roger E. A. & Guo Jang-Ting, 1994. "Real Business Cycles and the Animal Spirits Hypothesis," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 42-72, June.
  2. John Moore & Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, 2008. "Liquidity, Business Cycles, and Monetary Policy," 2008 Meeting Papers 35, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  3. Satyajit Chatterjee & Dean Corbae & Makoto Nakajima & Jose-Victor Rios-Rull, 2007. "A quantitative theory of unsecured consumer credit with risk of default," Working Papers 07-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  4. Gilchrist, Simon & Yankov, Vladimir & Zakrajsek, Egon, 2009. "Credit market shocks and economic fluctuations: Evidence from corporate bond and stock markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 471-493, May.
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  6. Juan Cordoba & Marla Ripoll, 2002. "Credit Cycles Redux," Macroeconomics 0210004, EconWPA.
    • Juan-Carlos Cordoba & Marla Ripoll, 2004. "Credit Cycles Redux," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1011-1046, November.
  7. Randall Wright & Chao Gu, 2011. "Endogenous Credit Cycles," 2011 Meeting Papers 373, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  8. Gourio, Francois & Kashyap, Anil K, 2007. "Investment spikes: New facts and a general equilibrium exploration," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(Supplemen), pages 1-22, September.
  9. Gertler, Mark & Karadi, Peter, 2011. "A model of unconventional monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-34, January.
  10. Costas Azariadis & Leo Kaas, 2010. "Capital Misallocation and Aggregate Factor Productivity," Working Paper Series 39_10, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  11. Benhabib, Jess & Farmer, Roger E.A., 1999. "Indeterminacy and sunspots in macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 6, pages 387-448 Elsevier.
  12. Sharon G. Harrison & Mark Weder, 2010. "Sunspots and Credit Frictions," School of Economics Working Papers 2010-02, University of Adelaide, School of Economics.
  13. Lown, Cara & Morgan, Donald P., 2004. "The Credit Cycle and the Business Cycle: New Findings Using the Loan Officer Opinion Survey," SIFR Research Report Series 27, Institute for Financial Research.
  14. Bulow, Jeremy & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1989. "Sovereign Debt: Is to Forgive to Forget?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 43-50, March.
  15. Azariadis, Costas & Kaas, Leo, 2007. "Asset price fluctuations without aggregate shocks," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 136(1), pages 126-143, September.
  16. Kirk White & Arpad Abraham, 2004. "The Dynamics of Plant-level Productivity in U.S. Manufacturing," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 332, Society for Computational Economics.
  17. Nicholas Bloom & Max Floetotto & Nir Jaimovich & Itay Saporta-Eksten & Stephen Terry, 2013. "Really uncertain business cycles," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 51526, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  18. Wen, Yi, 1998. "Capacity Utilization under Increasing Returns to Scale," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 7-36, July.
  19. Fabrizio Perri & Vincenzo Quadrini, 2011. "International Recessions," NBER Working Papers 17201, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March.
  21. Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, 1998. "Credit and Business Cycles," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 49(1), pages 18-35, 03.
  22. Jankowitsch, Rainer & Nagler, Florian & Subrahmanyam, Marti G., 2014. "The determinants of recovery rates in the US corporate bond market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(1), pages 155-177.
  23. Kehoe, Timothy J & Levine, David K, 2001. "Liquidity Constrained Markets versus Debt Constrained Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(3), pages 575-98, May.
  24. Costas Azariadis & Leo Kaas, 2012. "Endogenous Credit Limits with Small Default Costs," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2012-17, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
  25. Paolo Colla & Filippo Ippolito & Kai Li, 2013. "Debt Specialization," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(5), pages 2117-2141, October.
  26. Christian Hellwig & Guido Lorenzoni, 2006. "Bubbles and Self-enforcing Debt," Levine's Bibliography 321307000000000383, UCLA Department of Economics.
  27. Jiang, Danling, 2008. "Cross-Sectional Dispersion of Firm Valuations and Expected Stock Returns," MPRA Paper 8325, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  28. Raghuram G. Rajan & Luigi Zingales, 1994. "What Do We Know About Capital Structure? Some Evidence from International Data," NBER Working Papers 4875, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  29. Timothy J Kehoe & David K Levine, 1993. "Debt Constrained Asset Markets," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1276, David K. Levine.
  30. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Thomas M. Eisenbach & Yuliy Sannikov, 2012. "Macroeconomics with Financial Frictions: A Survey," Levine's Working Paper Archive 786969000000000384, David K. Levine.
  31. Tirole, Jean, 1985. "Asset Bubbles and Overlapping Generations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1499-1528, November.
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