IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/oup/restud/v83y2016i4p1364-1405..html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Self-Fulfilling Credit Cycles

Author

Listed:
  • Costas Azariadis
  • Leo Kaas
  • Yi Wen

Abstract

In U.S. data 1981–2012, unsecured firm credit moves procyclically and tends to lead GDP, while secured firm credit is acyclical; similarly, shocks to unsecured firm credit explain a far larger fraction of output fluctuations than shocks to secured credit. In this article, we develop a tractable dynamic general equilibrium model in which unsecured firm credit arises from self-enforcing borrowing constraints, preventing an efficient capital allocation among heterogeneous firms. Unsecured credit rests on the value that borrowers attach to a good credit reputation which is a forward-looking variable. We argue that self-fulfilling beliefs over future credit conditions naturally generate endogenously persistent business-cycle dynamics. A dynamic complementarity between current and future borrowing limits permits uncorrelated sunspot shocks to unsecured debt to trigger persistent aggregate fluctuations in both secured and unsecured debt, factor productivity, and output. We show that these sunspot shocks are quantitatively important, accounting for around half of output volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Costas Azariadis & Leo Kaas & Yi Wen, 2016. "Self-Fulfilling Credit Cycles," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 83(4), pages 1364-1405.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:restud:v:83:y:2016:i:4:p:1364-1405.
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/restud/rdv056
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Steven J. Davis & John Haltiwanger & Ron Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2007. "Volatility and Dispersion in Business Growth Rates: Publicly Traded versus Privately Held Firms," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2006, Volume 21, pages 107-180 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Fabrizio Perri & Vincenzo Quadrini, 2018. "International Recessions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(4-5), pages 935-984, April.
    3. Lown, Cara & Morgan, Donald P., 2006. "The Credit Cycle and the Business Cycle: New Findings Using the Loan Officer Opinion Survey," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(6), pages 1575-1597, September.
    4. Chao Gu & Fabrizio Mattesini & Cyril Monnet & Randall Wright, 2013. "Endogenous Credit Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 121(5), pages 940-965.
    5. John Moore & Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, 2008. "Liquidity, Business Cycles, and Monetary Policy," 2008 Meeting Papers 35, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Azariadis, Costas & Kaas, Leo, 2007. "Asset price fluctuations without aggregate shocks," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 136(1), pages 126-143, September.
    7. repec:wly:emetrp:v:86:y:2018:i:3:p:1031-1065 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Azariadis, Costas & Kaas, Leo, 2016. "Capital Misallocation And Aggregate Factor Productivity," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(02), pages 525-543, March.
    9. Kirk White & Arpad Abraham, 2004. "The Dynamics of Plant-level Productivity in U.S. Manufacturing," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 332, Society for Computational Economics.
    10. Kehoe, Timothy J & Levine, David K, 2001. "Liquidity Constrained Markets versus Debt Constrained Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(3), pages 575-598, May.
    11. Gourio, Francois & Kashyap, Anil K, 2007. "Investment spikes: New facts and a general equilibrium exploration," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(Supplemen), pages 1-22, September.
    12. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Thomas M. Eisenbach & Yuliy Sannikov, 2012. "Macroeconomics with Financial Frictions: A Survey," Levine's Working Paper Archive 786969000000000384, David K. Levine.
    13. Gilchrist, Simon & Yankov, Vladimir & Zakrajsek, Egon, 2009. "Credit market shocks and economic fluctuations: Evidence from corporate bond and stock markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 471-493, May.
    14. Bulow, Jeremy & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1989. "Sovereign Debt: Is to Forgive to Forget?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 43-50, March.
    15. Juan-Carlos Cordoba & Marla Ripoll, 2004. "Credit Cycles Redux," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1011-1046, November.
    16. Azariadis, Costas & Kaas, Leo, 2013. "Endogenous credit limits with small default costs," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 148(2), pages 806-824.
    17. Nicholas Bloom & Max Floetotto & Nir Jaimovich & Itay Saporta†Eksten & Stephen J. Terry, 2018. "Really Uncertain Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(3), pages 1031-1065, May.
    18. Paolo Colla & Filippo Ippolito & Kai Li, 2013. "Debt Specialization," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(5), pages 2117-2141, October.
    19. Rajan, Raghuram G & Zingales, Luigi, 1995. " What Do We Know about Capital Structure? Some Evidence from International Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1421-1460, December.
    20. Satyajit Chatterjee & Dean Corbae & Makoto Nakajima & José-Víctor Ríos-Rull, 2007. "A Quantitative Theory of Unsecured Consumer Credit with Risk of Default," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(6), pages 1525-1589, November.
    21. Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, 1998. "Credit and Business Cycles," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 49(1), pages 18-35, March.
    22. Timothy J. Kehoe & David K. Levine, 1993. "Debt-Constrained Asset Markets," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 60(4), pages 865-888.
    23. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March.
    24. Jankowitsch, Rainer & Nagler, Florian & Subrahmanyam, Marti G., 2014. "The determinants of recovery rates in the US corporate bond market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(1), pages 155-177.
    25. Farmer Roger E. A. & Guo Jang-Ting, 1994. "Real Business Cycles and the Animal Spirits Hypothesis," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 42-72, June.
    26. Wen, Yi, 1998. "Capacity Utilization under Increasing Returns to Scale," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 7-36, July.
    27. Benhabib, Jess & Farmer, Roger E.A., 1999. "Indeterminacy and sunspots in macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics,in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 6, pages 387-448 Elsevier.
    28. Christian Hellwig & Guido Lorenzoni, 2009. "Bubbles and Self-Enforcing Debt," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(4), pages 1137-1164, July.
    29. Tirole, Jean, 1985. "Asset Bubbles and Overlapping Generations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1499-1528, November.
    30. Jiang, Danling, 2008. "Cross-Sectional Dispersion of Firm Valuations and Expected Stock Returns," MPRA Paper 8325, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    31. Harrison, Sharon G. & Weder, Mark, 2013. "Sunspots And Credit Frictions," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(05), pages 1055-1069, July.
    32. Gertler, Mark & Karadi, Peter, 2011. "A model of unconventional monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-34, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:gam:jijfss:v:6:y:2018:i:2:p:41-:d:140401 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Dong, Feng & Wen, Yi, 2017. "Flight to What? — Dissecting Liquidity Shortages in the Financial Crisis," Working Papers 2017-25, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 10 Oct 2017.
    3. Joshua Brault & Hashmat Khan, 2018. "The Shifts in Lead-Lag Properties of the US Business Cycle," Carleton Economic Papers 18-03, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
    4. Wei Dai & Mark Weder & Bo Zhang, 2017. "Animal Spirits, Financial Markets and Aggregate Instability," School of Economics Working Papers 2017-08, University of Adelaide, School of Economics.
    5. P. A. Pintus & Y. Wen & X. Xing, 2016. "The Inverted Leading Indicator Property and Redistribution Effect of the Interest Rate," Working papers 616, Banque de France.
    6. Silvo, Aino, 2017. "House prices, lending standards, and the macroeconomy," Research Discussion Papers 4/2017, Bank of Finland.
    7. repec:kap:annfin:v:14:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s10436-017-0306-z is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D92 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice, Investment, Capacity, and Financing
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:restud:v:83:y:2016:i:4:p:1364-1405.. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Oxford University Press) or (Christopher F. Baum). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.