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Markov-Switching Three-Pass Regression Filter

Author

Listed:
  • Pierre Guérin
  • Danilo Leiva-Leon
  • Massimiliano Marcellino

Abstract

We introduce a new approach for the estimation of high-dimensional factor models with regime-switching factor loadings by extending the linear three-pass regression filter to settings where parameters can vary according to Markov processes. The new method, denoted as Markov-switching three-pass regression filter (MS-3PRF), is suitable for datasets with large cross-sectional dimensions, since estimation and inference are straightforward, as opposed to existing regime-switching factor models where computational complexity limits applicability to few variables. In a Monte Carlo experiment, we study the finite sample properties of the MS-3PRF and find that it performs favorably compared with alternative modeling approaches whenever there is structural instability in factor loadings. For empirical applications, we consider forecasting economic activity and bilateral exchange rates, finding that the MS-3PRF approach is competitive in both cases. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

Suggested Citation

  • Pierre Guérin & Danilo Leiva-Leon & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2020. "Markov-Switching Three-Pass Regression Filter," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(2), pages 285-302, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jnlbes:v:38:y:2020:i:2:p:285-302
    DOI: 10.1080/07350015.2018.1497508
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    Cited by:

    1. Bouri, Elie & Christou, Christina & Gupta, Rangan, 2022. "Forecasting returns of major cryptocurrencies: Evidence from regime-switching factor models," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    2. Julien Andre & Marie Bessec, 2024. "A Mixed-Frequency Factor Model for Nowcasting French GDP," Working papers 975, Banque de France.
    3. Pedro Isaac Chavez-Lopez & Tae-Hwy Lee, 2025. "Quantile-Covariance Three-Pass Regression Filter," Working Papers 202501, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
    4. Liang, Chao & Wang, Lu & Duong, Duy, 2024. "More attention and better volatility forecast accuracy: How does war attention affect stock volatility predictability?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 218(C), pages 1-19.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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