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Recent movements in the euro exchange rate and the impact on inflation in the Spanish economy

Author

Listed:
  • Danilo Leiva
  • Jaime Martínez-Martín
  • Eva Ortega

Abstract

The effect of the euro exchange rate on inflation has taken on significant importance recently, with the application of the ECB’s expansionary monetary policy measures having coincided with episodes of euro appreciation, such as that observed between the second half of 2017 and early 2018, which tend to exert downward pressure on imported prices. This article analyses the factors behind the fluctuations in the euro exchange rate against the dollar during the recent period, and finds that this appreciation may have largely been due to the higher relative growth of the euro area, compatible with a pick-up in expected euro area inflation. However, the subsequent depreciation, since February 2018, might reflect factors related to changes in the relative confidence of financial markets to the detriment of the euro, and to the lower relative growth of the euro area compared with the United States. Further, it is documented how the pass-through of exchange rate movements to overall consumer-price inflation in the Spanish economy has increased slightly in recent years, owing mainly to the energy component, while core inflation remains much less sensitive to exchange rate changes.

Suggested Citation

  • Danilo Leiva & Jaime Martínez-Martín & Eva Ortega, 2018. "Recent movements in the euro exchange rate and the impact on inflation in the Spanish economy," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España;Economic Bulletin Homepage, issue DEC, pages 1-8.
  • Handle: RePEc:bde:journl:y:2018:i:12:d:aa:n:24
    Note: Analytical Articles
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    File URL: https://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/InformesBoletinesRevistas/ArticulosAnaliticos/2018/T4/descargar/Files/beaa1804-art24e.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Mariarosaria Comunale, 2019. "An investigation of the exchange rate pass-through in the Baltic states," CAMA Working Papers 2019-60, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

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