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Exchange rate shocks and inflation comovement in the euro area

Author

Listed:
  • Danilo Leiva-Leon

    () (Banco de España)

  • Eva Ortega

    () (Banco de España)

  • Jaime Martínez-Martín

    () (European Central Bank)

Abstract

This paper decomposes the time-varying effect of exogenous exchange rate shocks on euro area countries inflation into country-specific (idiosyncratic) and region-wide (common) components. To do so, we propose a flexible empirical framework that is based on dynamic factor models subject to drifting parameters and exogenous information. We show that exogenous shocks to the euro/USD account for over 50% of the nominal euro/USD exchange rate fluctuations in more than 1/3 of the quarters over the past six years – especially in turning points periods. Our main results indicate that headline inflation in euro area countries, and in particular its energy-related component, has significantly become more affected by these exogenous exchange rate shocks since the early 2010s, in particular, for the largest economies of the region. While such increasing sensitivity relies solely on a sustained surge in the degree of comovement for headline inflation, it is also based on a higher region-wide effect of the shocks for the case of energy inflation. Instead, purely exogenous exchange rate shocks do not seem to have a significant effect on the core component of headline inflation, which also displays a lower degree of comovement across euro area countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Danilo Leiva-Leon & Eva Ortega & Jaime Martínez-Martín, 2019. "Exchange rate shocks and inflation comovement in the euro area," Working Papers 1934, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
  • Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:1934
    as

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    File URL: https://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/19/Fich/dt1934e.pdf
    File Function: First version, October 2019
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lian An & Jian Wang, 2012. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through: Evidence Based on Vector Autoregression with Sign Restrictions," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 359-380, April.
    2. Andrew Mountford, 2005. "Leaning into the Wind: A Structural VAR Investigation of UK Monetary Policy," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(5), pages 597-621, October.
    3. Mary Amiti & Oleg Itskhoki & Jozef Konings, 2016. "International Shocks and Domestic Prices: How Large Are Strategic Complementarities?," NBER Working Papers 22119, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Shambaugh, Jay, 2008. "A new look at pass-through," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 560-591, June.
    5. Michael B. Devereux & Ben Tomlin & Wei Dong, 2015. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through, Currency of Invoicing and Market Share," NBER Working Papers 21413, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    exchange rate; inflation; factor model; structural VAR model;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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