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Pass-through Across Products and Time

Author

Listed:
  • Joseph Vavra

    (University of Chicago)

  • David Berger

    (Northwestern University)

Abstract

How do import prices respond to exchange rate changes, and does this response vary across products or across time? We document two new and related facts: 1. Individual items with high price change variance have greater exchange rate pass-through. 2. During times when the cross-sectional variance of price changes is high, there is greater exchange rate pass-through. We show that these results are not driven by differences in the frequency of adjustment across products or time. We explore the extent to which these facts can be explained by time-varying product level volatility and their implications for aggregate inflation and monetary policy. Existing work has documented that trade prices declined only modestly in 2008 at the same time that trade volumes collapsed. Our evidence makes this fact even more puzzling, since pass-through is unusually high during this same period.

Suggested Citation

  • Joseph Vavra & David Berger, 2013. "Pass-through Across Products and Time," 2013 Meeting Papers 452, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:sed013:452
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    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Auer, Raphael A. & Schoenle, Raphael S., 2016. "Market structure and exchange rate pass-through," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 60-77.
    2. Souza, Thiago de Oliveira, 2020. "Dollar carry timing," Discussion Papers on Economics 10/2020, University of Southern Denmark, Department of Economics.
    3. Shirota, Toyoichiro, 2017. "Not All Exchange Rate Movements Are Alike : Exchange Rate Persistence and Pass-Through to Consumer Prices," Discussion paper series. A 311, Graduate School of Economics and Business Administration, Hokkaido University.
    4. Chan, Ying Tung & Dong, Yilin, 2022. "How does oil price volatility affect unemployment rates? A dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    5. David Berger & Ian Dew-Becker & Stefano Giglio, 2020. "Uncertainty Shocks as Second-Moment News Shocks," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 87(1), pages 40-76.
    6. Isaac Baley & J. Andrés Blanco, 2016. "Menu costs, uncertainty cycles, and the propagation of nominal shocks," Economics Working Papers 1532, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    7. Rita Fleer & Barbara Rudolf & Mathias Zurlinden, 2016. "Price change dispersion and time-varying pass-through to consumer prices," Working Papers 2016-17, Swiss National Bank.
    8. Luigi Paciello & Andrea Pozzi & Nicholas Trachter, 2019. "Price Dynamics With Customer Markets," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 60(1), pages 413-446, February.
    9. Dew-Becker, Ian & Giglio, Stefano & Kelly, Bryan, 2021. "Hedging macroeconomic and financial uncertainty and volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 23-45.
    10. Berger, David & Vavra, Joseph, 2018. "Dynamics of the U.S. price distribution," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 60-82.
    11. Forbes, Kristin & Hjortsoe, Ida & Nenova, Tsvetelina, 2018. "The shocks matter: Improving our estimates of exchange rate pass-through," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 255-275.
    12. Simon Mongey, 2017. "Market Structure and Monetary Non-Neutrality," 2017 Meeting Papers 184, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Ying Tung Chan, 2019. "The Environmental Impacts and Optimal Environmental Policies of Macroeconomic Uncertainty Shocks: A Dynamic Model Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(18), pages 1-26, September.
    14. Solórzano, Diego, 2023. "Heterogeneous exchange rate pass-through in Mexico: What drives it?," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 4(4).
    15. Danilo Leiva-Leon & Jaime Martinez-Martin & Eva Ortega, 2022. "Exchange Rate Shocks and Inflation Co-movement in the Euro Area," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(1), pages 239-275, March.
    16. Joseph S. Vavra, 2014. "Time-Varying Phillips Curves," NBER Working Papers 19790, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Chan, Ying Tung, 2020. "Carbon policies and productivity uncertainty: An intertemporal analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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