IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/19790.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Time-Varying Phillips Curves

Author

Listed:
  • Joseph S. Vavra

Abstract

A growing theoretical literature argues that aggregate price flexibility and the inflation-output tradeoff faced by central banks should rise with microeconomic price change dispersion. However, there is little empirical work testing this prediction. I fill this gap by estimating time-varying forward looking New-Keynesian Phillips Curves (NKPC). I reject a NKPC with constant inflation-output tradeoff in favor of a slope that increases with microeconomic volatility. In contrast, there is no evidence that the inflation-output tradeoff varies with aggregate volatility or the business cycle more generally. Furthermore, I show that greater volatility does not affect price flexibility purely through increases in frequency.

Suggested Citation

  • Joseph S. Vavra, 2014. "Time-Varying Phillips Curves," NBER Working Papers 19790, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19790 Note: EFG ME
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w19790.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ruediger Bachmann & Benjamin Born & Steffen Elstner & Christian Grimme, 2013. "Time-Varying Business Volatility and the Price Setting of Firms," NBER Working Papers 19180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Brent Neiman, 2014. "The Global Decline of the Labor Share," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 129(1), pages 61-103.
    3. Mark Gertler & John Leahy, 2008. "A Phillips Curve with an Ss Foundation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 116(3), pages 533-572, June.
    4. Nicholas Bloom, 2009. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, May.
    5. Bachmann, Rüdiger & Born, Benjamin & Elstner, Steffen & Grimme, Christian, 2013. "Time-varying business volatility, price setting, and the real effects of monetary policy," Working Papers 01/2013, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
    6. Nicholas Bloom & Max Floetotto & Nir Jaimovich & Itay Saporta-Eksten & Stephen J. Terry, 2012. "Really Uncertain Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 18245, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark & David Lopez-Salido, J., 2005. "Robustness of the estimates of the hybrid New Keynesian Phillips curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, pages 1107-1118.
    8. Joseph Vavra & David Berger, 2013. "Pass-through Across Products and Time," 2013 Meeting Papers 452, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Stock, James H & Wright, Jonathan H & Yogo, Motohiro, 2002. "A Survey of Weak Instruments and Weak Identification in Generalized Method of Moments," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(4), pages 518-529, October.
    10. Joseph Vavra, 2014. "Inflation Dynamics and Time-Varying Volatility: New Evidence and an Ss Interpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 129(1), pages 215-258.
    11. repec:oup:qjecon:v:129:y:2013:i:1:p:215-258 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October.
    13. Luis F. Céspedes & Marcelo Ochoa & Claudio Soto, 2005. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve in an Emerging Market Economy: The Case of Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 355, Central Bank of Chile.
    14. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2010. "Modeling inflation after the crisis," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 173-220.
    15. repec:oup:qjecon:v:129:y:2013:i:1:p:61-103 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Julio Blanco & Isaac Baley, 2013. "Learning to Price," 2013 Meeting Papers 663, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Canova, Fabio & Ferroni, Filippo & Matthes, Christian, 2015. "Approximating Time Varying Structural Models With Time Invariant Structures," Working Paper 15-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    2. Pawel Baranowski & Zbigniew Kuchta, 2015. "Changes in nominal rigidities in Poland – a regime switching DSGE perspective," Lodz Economics Working Papers 6/2015, University of Lodz, Faculty of Economics and Sociology.
    3. repec:rfa:aefjnl:v:4:y:2017:i:3:p:77-88 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19790. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.