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Riskiness Choice and Endogenous Productivity Dispersion over the Business Cycle

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  • Can Tian

    (Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania)

Abstract

Cross-sectional productivity dispersion is countercyclical, at the plant level and at the firm level. I incorporate a firm’s project choice decision into a firm dynamics model with business cycle features to explain this empirical .finding both qualitatively and quantitatively. In particular, all projects available have the same expected flow return and differ from one another only in the riskiness level. The endogenous option of exiting the market and limited funding for new investment jointly play an important role in motivating firms’ risk-taking behavior. The model predicts that relatively small firms are more likely to take risk and that the cross-sectional productivity dispersion, measured as the variance/standard deviation of firm-level profitability, is larger in recessions.

Suggested Citation

  • Can Tian, 2012. "Riskiness Choice and Endogenous Productivity Dispersion over the Business Cycle," PIER Working Paper Archive 12-025, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    • Handle: RePEc:pen:papers:12-025
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Rebucci, Alessandro, 2014. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: A Global Perspective," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6605, Inter-American Development Bank.
    2. Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi & M. Hashem Pesaran & Alessandro Rebucci, 2014. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: A Global Perspective," CESifo Working Paper Series 4736, CESifo Group Munich.
    3. Ryan A. Decker & Pablo N. D'Erasmo & Hernan Moscoso Boedo, 2016. "Market Exposure and Endogenous Firm Volatility over the Business Cycle," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 148-198, January.
    4. Mayumi Ojima & Junnosuke Shino & Kozo Ueda, 2014. "Buyer-Size Discounts and Inflation Dynamics," UTokyo Price Project Working Paper Series 017, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
    5. Hikaru Saijo, 2014. "The Uncertainty Multiplier and Business Cycles," Working Papers e067, Tokyo Center for Economic Research.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Countercyclical Productivity Dispersion; Business Cycles; Firm Dynamics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
    • L25 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Performance

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