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International Evidence on Shock-Dependent Exchange Rate Pass-Through

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  • Kristin Forbes
  • Ida Hjortsoe
  • Tsvetelina Nenova

Abstract

We analyse the economic conditions (the “shocks”) behind currency movements and show how that analysis can help address a range of questions, focusing on exchange rate pass-through to prices. We build on a methodology previously developed for the United Kingdom and adapt this framework so that it can be applied to a diverse sample of countries using widely available data. The paper provides three examples of how this enriched methodology can be used to provide insights on pass-through and other questions. First, it shows that exchange rate movements caused by monetary policy shocks consistently correspond to significantly higher pass-through than those caused by demand shocks in a cross-section of countries, confirming earlier results for the UK. Second, it shows that the underlying shocks (especially monetary policy shocks) are particularly important for understanding the time-series dimension of pass-through, while the standard structural variables highlighted in previous literature are most important for the cross-section dimension. Finally, the paper explores how the methodology can be used to shed light on the effects of monetary policy and the debate on "currency wars": it shows that the role of monetary policy shocks in driving the exchange rate has increased moderately since the global financial crisis in advanced economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Kristin Forbes & Ida Hjortsoe & Tsvetelina Nenova, 2020. "International Evidence on Shock-Dependent Exchange Rate Pass-Through," NBER Working Papers 27746, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27746
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    2. YOSHIDA Yushi & Weiyang ZHAI & SASAKI Yuri & Siyu ZHANG, 2022. "Exchange Rate Pass-through Under the Unconventional Monetary Policy Regime," Discussion papers 22020, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    3. Cristina ANGHELESCU, 2022. "Shock-dependent Exchange Rate Pass-through into Different Measures of Price Indices in the Case of Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 88-104, October.
    4. An, Lian & Wynne, Mark A. & Zhang, Ren, 2021. "Shock-dependent exchange rate pass-through: Evidence based on a narrative sign approach for Japan," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    5. Departamento de Economía Internacional y Área del Euro, 2021. "Report on the Latin American Economy. Second half of 2021. Outlook, vulnerabilities and policy space," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue 4/2021, pages 1-56.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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