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Shocks versus structure: explaining differences in exchange rate pass-through across countries and time

Author

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  • Forbes, Kristin

    () (Bank of England)

  • Hjortsoe, Ida

    () (Bank of England)

  • Nenova, Tsvetelina

    () (Bank of England)

Abstract

We show that exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices varies not only across countries, but also over time. Previous literature has highlighted the role of an economy’s ‘structure’ — such as its inflation volatility, inflation rate, use of foreign currency invoicing, and openness — in explaining these variations in pass-through. We use a sample of 26 advanced and emerging economies to show which of these structural variables are significant in explaining not only differences in pass-through across countries, but also over time. The ‘shocks’ leading to exchange rate movements can also explain variations in pass‑through over time. For example, exchange rate movements caused by monetary policy shocks consistently correspond to significantly higher estimates of pass-through than those caused by demand shocks. The role of ‘shocks’ in driving pass-through over time can be as large as that of structural variables, and even larger for some countries. As a result, forecasts predicting how a given exchange rate movement will impact inflation at a specific point in time should take into account not just an economy’s ‘structure’, but also the ‘shocks’.

Suggested Citation

  • Forbes, Kristin & Hjortsoe, Ida & Nenova, Tsvetelina, 2017. "Shocks versus structure: explaining differences in exchange rate pass-through across countries and time," Discussion Papers 50, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
  • Handle: RePEc:mpc:wpaper:0050
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Crowley, Meredith & Han, Lu & Song, Huasheng, 2018. "Markets and markups: a new empirical framework and evidence on exporters from China," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 87180, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2017. "Asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes: A survey," CAMA Working Papers 2017-76, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    3. Thórarinn G. Pétursson, 2018. "Disinflation and improved anchoring of long-term inflation expectations - The Icelandic experience," Economics wp77, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Pass-through; exchange rate; price level; inflation; monetary policy;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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