IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/spmain/hal-03411197.html

Estimating the elasticity of consumer prices to the exchange rate: an accounting approach

Author

Listed:
  • Hadrien Camatte
  • Guillaume Daudin

    (DIAL - Développement, institutions et analyses de long terme, OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po, LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Violaine Faubert
  • Antoine Lalliard
  • Christine Rifflart

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract

We analyse the elasticity of the household consumption expenditure (HCE) deflator to the exchange rate, using world input-output tables (WIOT) from 1995 to 2019. In line with the existing literature, we find a modest output-weighted elasticity of around 0.1. This elasticity is stable over time but heterogeneous across countries, ranging from 0.05 to 0.22. Such heterogeneity mainly reflects differences in foreign product content of consumption and intermediate products. Direct effects through imported consumption and intermediate products entering domestic production explain most of the transmission of an exchange rate appreciation to domestic prices. By contrast, indirect effects linked to participation in global value chains play a limited role. Our results are robust to using four different WIOT datasets. As WIOT are data-demanding and available with a lag of several years, we extrapolate a reliable estimate of the HCE deflator elasticity from 2015 onwards using trade data and GDP statistics.

Suggested Citation

  • Hadrien Camatte & Guillaume Daudin & Violaine Faubert & Antoine Lalliard & Christine Rifflart, 2021. "Estimating the elasticity of consumer prices to the exchange rate: an accounting approach," Sciences Po Economics Publications (main) hal-03411197, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03411197
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-03411197v1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal.science/hal-03411197v1/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Özyurt, Selin, 2016. "Has the exchange rate pass through recently declined in the euro area?," Working Paper Series 1955, European Central Bank.
    2. Vasco M. Carvalho, 2014. "From Micro to Macro via Production Networks," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(4), pages 23-48, Fall.
    3. Forbes, Kristin & Hjortsoe, Ida & Nenova, Tsvetelina, 2018. "The shocks matter: Improving our estimates of exchange rate pass-through," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 255-275.
    4. Vasco M. Carvalho, 2015. "From Micro to Macro via Production Networks," Working Papers 793, Barcelona School of Economics.
    5. Nicolas Berman & Philippe Martin & Thierry Mayer, 2012. "How do Different Exporters React to Exchange Rate Changes?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(1), pages 437-492.
    6. Christine Rifflart & Sandra Fronteau & Guillaume Daudin & Marion Cochard, 2016. "Commerce vertical et propagation des chocs de prix : le cas de la zone euro," Post-Print hal-01482218, HAL.
    7. Nicolas Berman & Philippe Martin & Thierry Mayer, 2012. "How do Different Exporters React to Exchange Rate Changes?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 127(1), pages 437-492.
    8. Marcel P. Timmer & Erik Dietzenbacher & Bart Los & Robert Stehrer & Gaaitzen J. Vries, 2015. "An Illustrated User Guide to the World Input–Output Database: the Case of Global Automotive Production," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 575-605, August.
    9. Feenstra, Robert C. & Jensen, J. Bradford, 2012. "Evaluating estimates of materials offshoring from US manufacturing," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 170-173.
    10. Puzzello, Laura, 2012. "A proportionality assumption and measurement biases in the factor content of trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 105-111.
    11. Danilo Leiva-Leon & Jaime Martinez-Martin & Eva Ortega, 2022. "Exchange Rate Shocks and Inflation Co-movement in the Euro Area," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(1), pages 239-275, March.
    12. Reddan, Paul & Rice, Jonathan, 2017. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Domestic Prices," Economic Letters 08/EL/17, Central Bank of Ireland.
    13. Marion Cochard & Guillaume Daudin & Sandra Fronteau & Christine Rifflart, 2016. "Commerce vertical et propagation des chocs de prix. Le cas de la zone euro," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(5), pages 131-166.
    14. Timmer, Marcel P. & Los, Bart & Stehrer, Robert & de Vries, Gaaitzen J., 2016. "An Anatomy of the Global Trade Slowdown based on the WIOD 2016 Release," GGDC Research Memorandum GD-162, Groningen Growth and Development Centre, University of Groningen.
    15. Eva Ortega & Chiara Osbat, 2020. "Exchange rate pass-through in the euro area and EU countries," Occasional Papers 2016, Banco de España.
    16. Mary Amiti & Oleg Itskhoki & Jozef Konings, 2014. "Importers, Exporters, and Exchange Rate Disconnect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(7), pages 1942-1978, July.
    17. Boz, Emine & Casas, Camila & Georgiadis, Georgios & Gopinath, Gita & Le Mezo, Helena & Mehl, Arnaud & Nguyen, Tra, 2020. "Patterns in invoicing currency in global trade," Working Paper Series 2456, European Central Bank.
    18. Gita Gopinath & Emine Boz & Camila Casas & Federico J. Díez & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Mikkel Plagborg-Møller, 2020. "Dominant Currency Paradigm," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(3), pages 677-719, March.
    19. Daron Acemoglu & Vasco M. Carvalho & Asuman Ozdaglar & Alireza Tahbaz‐Salehi, 2012. "The Network Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(5), pages 1977-2016, September.
    20. Emine Boz & Gita Gopinath & Mikkel Plagborg-Møller, 2019. "Dollar Invoicing and the Heterogeneity of Exchange Rate Pass-Through," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 109, pages 527-532, May.
    21. Roberta Colavecchio & Ieva Rubene, 2019. "Non-linear exchange rate pass-through to euro area inflation: A local projection approach," BCL working papers 138, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    22. Gaulier, Guillaume & Zignago, Soledad, 2004. "Notes on BACI (analytical database of international trade). 1989-2002 version," MPRA Paper 32401, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Christine Rifflart & Sandra Fronteau & Guillaume Daudin & Marion Cochard, 2016. "Commerce vertical et propagation des chocs de prix : le cas de la zone euro," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-01482218, HAL.
    24. Robert C. Johnson, 2014. "Trade in Intermediate Inputs and Business Cycle Comovement," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 39-83, October.
    25. de Soyres, François & Frohm, Erik & Gunnella, Vanessa & Pavlova, Elena, 2021. "Bought, sold and bought again: The impact of complex value chains on export elasticities," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    26. Gita Gopinath & Oleg Itskhoki & Roberto Rigobon, 2010. "Currency Choice and Exchange Rate Pass-Through," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(1), pages 304-336, March.
    27. Erik Dietzenbacher & Bart Los & Robert Stehrer & Marcel Timmer & Gaaitzen de Vries, 2013. "The Construction Of World Input-Output Tables In The Wiod Project," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 71-98, March.
    28. Ortega, Eva & Osbat, Chiara & Rubene, Ieva, 2020. "The transmission of exchange rate changes to euro area inflation," Economic Bulletin Articles, European Central Bank, vol. 3.
    29. Ha, Jongrim & Marc Stocker, M. & Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2020. "Inflation and exchange rate pass-through," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    30. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/lr26q984g9ugrdd32sak3evpm is not listed on IDEAS
    31. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum & Brent Neiman & John Romalis, 2016. "Trade and the Global Recession," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(11), pages 3401-3438, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Csaba BÁLINT, 2022. "Sectorial Price Shock Propagation via Input-Output Linkages," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 21-40, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hadrien Camatte & Guillaume Daudin & Violaine Faubert & Antoine Lalliard & Christine Rifflart, 2021. "Global value chains and the transmission of exchange rate shocks to consumer prices," Working Papers hal-03374355, HAL.
    2. Ha, Jongrim & Marc Stocker, M. & Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2020. "Inflation and exchange rate pass-through," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    3. Georgiadis, Georgios & Gräb, Johannes & Khalil, Makram, 2019. "Global value chain participation and exchange rate pass-through," Working Paper Series 2327, European Central Bank.
    4. Apaitan, Tosapol & Manopimoke, Pym & Nookhwun, Nuwat & Pattararangrong, Jettawat, 2024. "Heterogeneity in exchange rate pass-through to import prices in Thailand: Evidence from micro data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    5. Bartesaghi, Paolo & Clemente, Gian Paolo & Grassi, Rosanna & Luu, Duc Thi, 2022. "The multilayer architecture of the global input-output network and its properties," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 304-341.
    6. Julian Di Giovanni & Galina Hale, 2022. "Stock Market Spillovers via the Global Production Network: Transmission of U.S. Monetary Policy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(6), pages 3373-3421, December.
    7. Eva Ortega & Chiara Osbat, 2020. "Exchange rate pass-through in the euro area and EU countries," Occasional Papers 2016, Banco de España.
    8. Shah, Sayar Ahmad & Garg, Bhavesh, 2026. "Dynamics of exchange rate pass-through: The role of pricing strategies and economic shocks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    9. Costa, Rui & Dhingra, Swati & Machin, Stephen, 2024. "New dawn fades: Trade, labour and the Brexit exchange rate depreciation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    10. Frohm, Erik, 2023. "Dominant currencies and the export supply channel," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 1-18.
    11. An, Lian & Wynne, Mark A. & Zhang, Ren, 2021. "Shock-dependent exchange rate pass-through: Evidence based on a narrative sign approach for Japan," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    12. Mundt, Philipp, 2021. "The formation of input–output architecture: Evidence from the European Union," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 89-104.
    13. Frohm, Erik & Gunnella, Vanessa, 2017. "Sectoral interlinkages in global value chains: spillovers and network effects," Working Paper Series 2064, European Central Bank.
    14. Natalie Chen & Wanyu Chung & Dennis Novy, 2022. "Vehicle Currency Pricing and Exchange Rate Pass-Through," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 20(1), pages 312-351.
    15. Zhang, Wenqian & Wei, Hao, 2025. "The impact of RMB exchange rate changes on the prices of imported products by Chinese firms," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 464-478.
    16. Branger, Nicole & Flacke, René Marian & Meyerhof, Paul & Windmüller, Steffen, 2023. "Stock returns in global value chains: The role of upstreamness and downstreamness," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    17. Sebastian Edwards & Luis Cabezas, 2022. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through, Monetary Policy, and Real Exchange Rates: Iceland and the 2008 Crisis," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 197-230, April.
    18. Gunnella, Vanessa & Al-Haschimi, Alexander & Benkovskis, Konstantins & Chiacchio, Francesco & de Soyres, François & Di Lupidio, Benedetta & Fidora, Michael & Franco-Bedoya, Sebastian & Frohm, Erik & G, 2019. "The impact of global value chains on the euro area economy," Occasional Paper Series 221, European Central Bank.
    19. Olivera Kostoska & Viktor Stojkoski & Ljupco Kocarev, 2020. "On the structure of the world economy: An absorbing Markov chain approach," Papers 2003.05204, arXiv.org.
    20. Dainauskas, Justas, 2023. "Time-varying exchange rate pass-through into terms of trade," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03411197. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Contact - Sciences Po Department of Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.