Commerce vertical et propagation des chocs de prix : le cas de la zone euro
The decomposition of international value chains is an important aspect of globalization. Many studies have investigated the spread of a global demand shock to the countries of origin of embedded goods. The contribution of this article is to examine the effect of supply shocks on prices, based on a cost-push inflation assumption, using global Input-Output tables from the OECD. The first part presents the method, and in particular we adapt the Leontief price model to a world economy to analyze to exchange rate and productivity shocks. The second part empirically analyzes the impact of shocks on the euro area and the rest of the world when the shock comes from the euro zone. The third part discusses the diffusion modalities of the shocks and shows that they are dominated by the first-round effects and hence the share of inputs imported into production or exports. Our model shows that exchange rate shocks are partially offset by changes in input prices, which, in the case of exchange rate appreciation, limits the loss of competitiveness. In euro area countries the magnitude of this compensation is not insignificant, and it is even higher when countries are open. It is also more important for export prices than for production prices. It is higher for Germany (the elasticity of its exports prices in euro to a choc on the value of the euro is -0.09) than for France (-0.08). The effects of productivity shocks are much greater, in particular because there is a domestic amplification effect before their international spread. Among the large countries, Germany is the most likely to benefit from productivity gains in the CEECs outside the Euro zone (the elasticity of its export prices to a productivity shock in non-eurozone Eastern Europe countries is 0.06 vs 0.025 for France).
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|Date of creation:||2016|
|Publication status:||Published in Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences Po, 2016|
|Note:||View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01482218|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/|
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