IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2019-116.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Trade Linkages and International Business Cycle Comovement: Evidence from Korean Industry Data

Author

Listed:
  • Dongyeol Lee

Abstract

Through the 2000s, Korea’s export and import linkages to advanced and emerging markets increased significantly. At the same time, the correlation of output growth between Korea and these economies rose. This paper investigates the nature of the link between trade linkages and the comovement of international business cycles (BC) using Korean industry-level domestic and international input-output data. The results suggest that, at the industry-level, higher export linkages lead to a larger positive GDP growth comovement, while higher import linkages lead to higher negative employment growth comovement. Furthermore, the decomposition of aggregate BC comovement shows that the increase in trade with China has contributed the most to aggregate BC comovement, while the impact of trade linkages on BC comovement is propagated domestically via vertical linkages. These findings suggest that the Korean economy can be significantly affected by a few countries that are highly linked through trade to Korea and/or a few industries that are highly interconnected to other industries.

Suggested Citation

  • Dongyeol Lee, 2019. "Trade Linkages and International Business Cycle Comovement: Evidence from Korean Industry Data," IMF Working Papers 2019/116, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2019/116
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=46915
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-1025, July.
    2. Robert Koopman & Zhi Wang & Shang-Jin Wei, 2014. "Tracing Value-Added and Double Counting in Gross Exports," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(2), pages 459-494, February.
    3. Daron Acemoglu & Asuman Ozdaglar & Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi, 2017. "Microeconomic Origins of Macroeconomic Tail Risks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(1), pages 54-108, January.
    4. Vasco M. Carvalho, 2014. "From Micro to Macro via Production Networks," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(4), pages 23-48, Fall.
    5. Vasco M. Carvalho & Basile Grassi, 2019. "Large Firm Dynamics and the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(4), pages 1375-1425, April.
    6. Jean Imbs, 2004. "Trade, Finance, Specialization, and Synchronization," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 723-734, August.
    7. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko & Isabelle Mejean, 2018. "The Micro Origins of International Business-Cycle Comovement," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(1), pages 82-108, January.
    8. Vasco Carvalho & Xavier Gabaix, 2013. "The Great Diversification and Its Undoing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(5), pages 1697-1727, August.
    9. Vasco M. Carvalho, 2014. "From Micro to Macro via Production Networks," Working Papers 793, Barcelona School of Economics.
    10. Daron Acemoglu & Ufuk Akcigit & William Kerr, 2016. "Networks and the Macroeconomy: An Empirical Exploration," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 30(1), pages 273-335.
    11. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko, 2010. "Putting the Parts Together: Trade, Vertical Linkages, and Business Cycle Comovement," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 95-124, April.
    12. Zhi Wang & Shang-Jin Wei & Xinding Yu & Kunfu Zhu, 2018. "Re-examining the Effects of Trading with China on Local Labor Markets: A Supply Chain Perspective," NBER Working Papers 24886, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Xavier Gabaix, 2011. "The Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(3), pages 733-772, May.
    14. Daron Acemoglu & David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson & Brendan Price, 2016. "Import Competition and the Great US Employment Sag of the 2000s," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(S1), pages 141-198.
    15. Marcel P. Timmer & Erik Dietzenbacher & Bart Los & Robert Stehrer & Gaaitzen J. Vries, 2015. "An Illustrated User Guide to the World Input–Output Database: the Case of Global Automotive Production," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 575-605, August.
    16. Kose, M. Ayhan & Yi, Kei-Mu, 2006. "Can the standard international business cycle model explain the relation between trade and comovement?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 267-295, March.
    17. Gordon H. Hanson & Raymond J. Mataloni & Matthew J. Slaughter, 2005. "Vertical Production Networks in Multinational Firms," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 664-678, November.
    18. Roberto Samaniego & Juliana Sun, 2016. "Productivity Growth and Structural Transformation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 21, pages 266-285, July.
    19. Vasco Carvalho, 2007. "Aggregate fluctuations and the network structure of intersectoral trade," Economics Working Papers 1206, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Oct 2010.
    20. Daron Acemoglu & Vasco M. Carvalho & Asuman Ozdaglar & Alireza Tahbaz‐Salehi, 2012. "The Network Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(5), pages 1977-2016, September.
    21. Ando, Sakai, 2014. "Measuring US sectoral shocks in the world input–output network," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 125(2), pages 204-207.
    22. Shea, John S, 2002. "Complementarities and Comovements," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(2), pages 412-433, May.
    23. Ahn, JaeBin & Duval, Romain, 2017. "Trading with China: Productivity gains, job losses," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 38-42.
    24. Robert C. Johnson, 2014. "Trade in Intermediate Inputs and Business Cycle Comovement," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 39-83, October.
    25. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko & Isabelle Mejean, 2017. "Large Firms and International Business Cycle Comovement," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(5), pages 598-602, May.
    26. Foster-McGregor, Neil & Stehrer, Robert, 2013. "Value added content of trade: A comprehensive approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 354-357.
    27. Hummels, David & Ishii, Jun & Yi, Kei-Mu, 2001. "The nature and growth of vertical specialization in world trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 75-96, June.
    28. Dongyeol Lee, 2019. "Transmission of Domestic and External Shocks through Input-Output Network: Evidence from Korean Industries," IMF Working Papers 2019/117, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lee, Dongyeol, 2021. "Propagation of economic shocks through vertical and trade linkages in Korea: An empirical analysis," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lee, Dongyeol, 2021. "Propagation of economic shocks through vertical and trade linkages in Korea: An empirical analysis," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    2. Dongyeol Lee, 2019. "Transmission of Domestic and External Shocks through Input-Output Network: Evidence from Korean Industries," IMF Working Papers 2019/117, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Barauskaite, Kristina & Nguyen, Anh D.M., 2021. "Global intersectoral production network and aggregate fluctuations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    4. Erik Frohm & Vanessa Gunnella, 2021. "Spillovers in global production networks," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(3), pages 663-680, August.
    5. Frohm, Erik & Gunnella, Vanessa, 2017. "Sectoral interlinkages in global value chains: spillovers and network effects," Working Paper Series 2064, European Central Bank.
    6. Mundt, Philipp, 2021. "The formation of input–output architecture: Evidence from the European Union," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 89-104.
    7. Bartesaghi, Paolo & Clemente, Gian Paolo & Grassi, Rosanna & Luu, Duc Thi, 2022. "The multilayer architecture of the global input-output network and its properties," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 304-341.
    8. Ernesto Pasten & Raphael S. Schoenle & Michael Weber & Michael Weber, 2017. "Price Rigidities and the Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," CESifo Working Paper Series 6619, CESifo.
    9. Imbs, Jean & Pauwels, Laurent, 2019. "Fundamental Moments," Working Papers BAWP-2019-06, University of Sydney Business School, Discipline of Business Analytics.
    10. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko & Isabelle Mejean, 2018. "The Micro Origins of International Business-Cycle Comovement," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(1), pages 82-108, January.
    11. Ernesto Pasten & Raphael Schoenle & Michael Weber, 2017. "Price Rigidity and the Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 23750, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Gunnella, Vanessa & Al-Haschimi, Alexander & Benkovskis, Konstantins & Chiacchio, Francesco & de Soyres, François & Di Lupidio, Benedetta & Fidora, Michael & Franco-Bedoya, Sebastian & Frohm, Erik & G, 2019. "The impact of global value chains on the euro area economy," Occasional Paper Series 221, European Central Bank.
    13. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2018_003 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Pasten, Ernesto & Schoenle, Raphael & Weber, Michael, 2017. "Price rigidities and the granular origins of aggregate fluctuations," Working Paper Series 2102, European Central Bank.
    15. Marco Pangallo, 2020. "Synchronization of endogenous business cycles," Papers 2002.06555, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2023.
    16. Kim, Daisoon, 2021. "Economies of scale and international business cycles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    17. João Amador & Sónia Cabral, 2017. "Networks of Value-added Trade," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(7), pages 1291-1313, July.
    18. Kristina Barauskaite & Anh Dinh Minh Nguyen, 2021. "Direct and network effects of idiosyncratic TFP shocks," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(6), pages 2765-2793, June.
    19. Glenn Magerman & Karolien De Bruyne & Emmanuel Dhyne & Jan Van Hove, 2016. "Heterogeneous Firms and the Micro Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2016-35, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    20. de Soyres, François & Gaillard, Alexandre, 2022. "Global trade and GDP comovement," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    21. Michael Weber & Ali Ozdagli, 2016. "Monetary Policy Through Production Networks: Evidence from the Stock Market," 2016 Meeting Papers 148, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2019/116. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.