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The “effect modifier” of US interest rate in the economic policy uncertainties and economic conditions of fifty (50) US states: A semi-parametric smooth varying-coefficient approach

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  • Salisu, Afees A.
  • Isah, Kazeem
  • Vinh Vo, Xuan

Abstract

In this study, we investigate the relationship between economic policy uncertainty [EPU] and the economic conditions of the 50 US states, as well as the role of interest rates. We use a semi-parametric smooth varying coefficient model (SVCM) to examine how interest rate affects the nexus of EPU-economic conditions. Our findings suggest a negative relationship between EPU and economic conditions and that when the interest rate is around 3 %, the negative impact of EPU on economic conditions decreases in more than 60 % of US states. Furthermore, we find that the rate of change in the interest rate between 2 % and 3 % helps mitigate the negative effects of EPU and improves economic conditions in several states. Our results remain consistent across different interest rate periods, regardless of whether the uncertainty is of internal or external origin.

Suggested Citation

  • Salisu, Afees A. & Isah, Kazeem & Vinh Vo, Xuan, 2025. "The “effect modifier” of US interest rate in the economic policy uncertainties and economic conditions of fifty (50) US states: A semi-parametric smooth varying-coefficient approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(PA).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:75:y:2025:i:pa:s1062940824002043
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2024.102279
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Uncertainty; Economic conditions; US states; Semi-parametric smooth varying-coefficient model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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