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Easier said than done: Predicting downside risks to house prices in Croatia

Author

Listed:
  • Tihana Škrinjarić

    (Bank of England, United Kingdom)

  • Maja Sabol

    (European Parliament)

Abstract

House price dynamics are particularly interesting for macroprudential policymakers due to their effects on financial stability and future macroeconomic performance. As the main goal of macroprudential policy is to mitigate systemic risks, it is essential to monitor the central tendency of future house price growth dynamics and focus on downside risks and their possible materialization. This research, the first of its kind applied to the Croatian housing market, tries to identify and capture the main drivers of house price-at-risk (HaR) for the period between 2002Q1 and 2022Q3. It also predicts downside risks to future real house price growth. Based on the quantile regression results, we conclude that downside risks on housing market have increased in recent years. The approach is found to be insightful to monitor the uncertainty of the forecasts and decomposing the drivers to house price forecasting. Our results have implications for a range of policies that influence housing markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Tihana Škrinjarić & Maja Sabol, 2023. "Easier said than done: Predicting downside risks to house prices in Croatia," Working Papers 73, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
    • Handle: RePEc:hnb:wpaper:73
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    financial stability; macroprudential policy; quantile regression; growth at risk; house price dynamics; downside risks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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