IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/eurase/v13y2023i3d10.1007_s40822-023-00236-w.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impact of macroprudential policy on economic growth in Indonesia: a growth-at-risk approach

Author

Listed:
  • Raluca Maran

Abstract

Macroprudential policy yields important benefits in terms of preventing and mitigating systemic risk, but it can also have an impact on economic growth, particularly on the left tail of the growth distribution. In this context, policymakers need to consider the effects of macroprudential policies on the entire growth distribution, and not only on average growth. The growth-at-risk (GaR) approach represents a useful framework for such an assessment. This paper describes the use of the GaR method and illustrates its implementation for assessing the impact of macroprudential policy on GaR in Indonesia. As a first step, I select 26 macrofinancial variables that are relevant for the Indonesian economy and build three partitions that capture financial conditions, macrofinancial vulnerabilities and other relevant factors. Results from quantile regressions have important policy implications, suggesting that an early tightening of macroprudential policy would reduce downside risks to Indonesia’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth by increasing the resilience of the financial system. Results further show that a materialization of risk, stemming from either a loosening of financial conditions, an increase of macrofinancial vulnerabilities or a deterioration of the macroeconomic environment have important effects on Indonesia’s GDP growth distribution and particularly on the left tail of the distribution, which represents the GaR. Under each of these scenarios, a tightening or loosening of the macroprudential stance, depending on the underlying vulnerabilities, yields high benefits in terms of improving Indonesia’s GaR, which range from 0.06 and 0.14 percentage points.

Suggested Citation

  • Raluca Maran, 2023. "Impact of macroprudential policy on economic growth in Indonesia: a growth-at-risk approach," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 13(3), pages 575-613, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:eurase:v:13:y:2023:i:3:d:10.1007_s40822-023-00236-w
    DOI: 10.1007/s40822-023-00236-w
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s40822-023-00236-w
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s40822-023-00236-w?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Akinci, Ozge & Olmstead-Rumsey, Jane, 2018. "How effective are macroprudential policies? An empirical investigation," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 33-57.
    2. Franta, Michal & Gambacorta, Leonardo, 2020. "On the effects of macroprudential policies on Growth-at-Risk," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    3. Ossandon Busch, Matias & Sánchez-Martínez, José Manuel & Rodríguez-Martínez, Anahí & Montañez-Enríquez, Ricardo & Martínez-Jaramillo, Serafín, 2022. "Growth at risk: Methodology and applications in an open-source platform," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 3(3).
    4. Suarez, Javier, 2022. "Growth-at-risk and macroprudential policy design," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    5. Carroll, Christopher D & Fuhrer, Jeffrey C & Wilcox, David W, 1994. "Does Consumer Sentiment Forecast Household Spending? If So, Why?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1397-1408, December.
    6. Bruno, Valentina & Shim, Ilhyock & Shin, Hyun Song, 2017. "Comparative assessment of macroprudential policies," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 183-202.
    7. Richter, Björn & Schularick, Moritz & Shim, Ilhyock, 2019. "The costs of macroprudential policy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 263-282.
    8. Galán, Jorge E., 2024. "The benefits are at the tail: Uncovering the impact of macroprudential policy on growth-at-risk," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    9. Dąbrowski, Marek A. & Śmiech, Sławomir & Papież, Monika, 2015. "Monetary policy options for mitigating the impact of the global financial crisis on emerging market economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 409-431.
    10. Kim, Dohan & Sohn, Wook, 2017. "The effect of bank capital on lending: Does liquidity matter?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 95-107.
    11. Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Luc Laeven & David Moreno, 2022. "Debt Overhang, Rollover Risk, and Corporate Investment: Evidence from the European Crisis," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 20(6), pages 2353-2395.
    12. Cerutti, Eugenio & Claessens, Stijn & Laeven, Luc, 2017. "The use and effectiveness of macroprudential policies: New evidence," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 203-224.
    13. Kukk, Merike, 2016. "How did household indebtedness hamper consumption during the recession? Evidence from micro data," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 764-786.
    14. Soyoung Kim & Aaron Mehrotra, 2018. "Effects of Monetary and Macroprudential Policies—Evidence from Four Inflation Targeting Economies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(5), pages 967-992, August.
    15. Castellacci, Giuseppe & Choi, Youngna, 2015. "Modeling contagion in the Eurozone crisis via dynamical systems," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 400-410.
    16. Malmierca, María, 2021. "International financial positions and macroprudential policy," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 1034-1062.
    17. Thibaut Duprey & Alexander Ueberfeldt, 2020. "Managing GDP Tail Risk," Staff Working Papers 20-3, Bank of Canada.
    18. Del Giovane, Paolo & Eramo, Ginette & Nobili, Andrea, 2011. "Disentangling demand and supply in credit developments: A survey-based analysis for Italy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 2719-2732, October.
    19. Zhang, Longmei & Zoli, Edda, 2016. "Leaning against the wind: Macroprudential policy in Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 33-52.
    20. James Mitchell & Richard J. Smith & Martin R. Weale & Stephen Wright & Eduardo L. Salazar, 2005. "An Indicator of Monthly GDP and an Early Estimate of Quarterly GDP Growth," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(501), pages 108-129, February.
    21. Gebauer, Stefan & Setzer, Ralph & Westphal, Andreas, 2018. "Corporate debt and investment: A firm-level analysis for stressed euro area countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 112-130.
    22. Claessens, Stijn & Ghosh, Swati R. & Mihet, Roxana, 2013. "Macro-prudential policies to mitigate financial system vulnerabilities," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 153-185.
    23. Song, Lingfeng & Zhang, Yinsainan, 2021. "Banking network structure and transnational systemic risk contagion—The case of the European Union," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    24. Glasserman, Paul & Young, H. Peyton, 2015. "How likely is contagion in financial networks?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 383-399.
    25. Tobias Adrian & Federico Grinberg & Nellie Liang & Sheheryar Malik & Jie Yu, 2022. "The Term Structure of Growth-at-Risk," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 283-323, July.
    26. Adelchi Azzalini & Antonella Capitanio, 2003. "Distributions generated by perturbation of symmetry with emphasis on a multivariate skew t‐distribution," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 65(2), pages 367-389, May.
    27. Teixeira, André, 2023. "Does macroprudential policy affect wealth inequality? Evidence from synthetic controls," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    28. Poghosyan, Tigran, 2020. "How effective is macroprudential policy? Evidence from lending restriction measures in EU countries," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    29. Matthieu Darracq Paries & Peter Karadi & Christoffer Kok & Kalin Nikolov, 2022. "The Impact of Capital Requirements on the Macroeconomy: Lessons from Four Macroeconomic Models of the Euro Area," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(5), pages 1-50, December.
    30. Alessandro Dovis & Rishabh Kirpalani, 2020. "Fiscal Rules, Bailouts, and Reputation in Federal Governments," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(3), pages 860-888, March.
    31. Guo, Yumei & He, Shan, 2020. "Does confidence matter for economic growth? An analysis from the perspective of policy effectiveness," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 1-19.
    32. van der Veer, Koen J.M. & Hoeberichts, Marco M., 2016. "The level effect of bank lending standards on business lending," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 79-88.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Umar Farooq & Adel Ahmed & Mosab I. Tabash & Mujeeb Saif Mohsen Al-Absy & Yasmeen Elsantil, 2024. "External debt and economic growth: moderating role of governance in South Asia Region," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 14(2), pages 339-360, June.
    2. Arie Jacobi & Joseph Tzur, 2024. "The geometry of growth: how wealth distribution patterns predict economic development," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 14(2), pages 301-337, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Galán, Jorge E., 2024. "The benefits are at the tail: Uncovering the impact of macroprudential policy on growth-at-risk," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    2. Nakatani, Ryota, 2020. "Macroprudential policy and the probability of a banking crisis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1169-1186.
    3. Yang, Jin Young & Suh, Hyunduk, 2023. "Heterogeneous effects of macroprudential policies on firm leverage and value," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    4. Alper, Koray & Baskaya, Soner & Shi, Shuren, 2025. "How do macroprudential policies affect corporate investment? Insights from EIBIS data," EIB Working Papers 2025/02, European Investment Bank (EIB).
    5. Lloyd, Simon & Fernández-Gallardo, Álvaro & Manuel, Ed, 2023. "The transmission of macroprudential policy in the tails: evidence from a narrative approach," ESRB Working Paper Series 145, European Systemic Risk Board.
    6. Marcin Czaplicki, 2022. "Measuring the restrictiveness of (macro)prudential policy: the case of bank capital regulation in Poland," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(3), pages 322-338, September.
    7. Coulier, Lara & De Schryder, Selien, 2024. "Assessing the effects of borrower-based macroprudential policy on credit in the EU using intensity-based indices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    8. Mokas, Dimitris & Giuliodori, Massimo, 2023. "Effects of LTV announcements in EU economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    9. Kang, Qiaoling & Chen, Minghua & Wu, Ji & Jeon, Bang Nam, 2024. "Reining in the riskiest? Evidence of non-linear impacts of macroprudential regulations on bank systemic risk in China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    10. Belkhir, Mohamed & Naceur, Sami Ben & Candelon, Bertrand & Wijnandts, Jean-Charles, 2022. "Macroprudential policies, economic growth and banking crises," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    11. Zhou, Yang, 2024. "Benefits and costs: The impact of capital control on growth-at-risk in China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    12. Dimitris Mokas & Massimo Giuliodori, 2021. "Effects of LTV announcements in EU economies," Working Papers 704, DNB.
    13. Salma Gallas & Houssam Bouzgarrou & Montassar Zayati, 2024. "Balancing financial stability and economic growth: a comprehensive analysis of macroprudential regulation," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 14(4), pages 1005-1033, December.
    14. Olszak, Małgorzata & Kowalska, Iwona, 2022. "Does bank competition matter for the effects of macroprudential policy on the procyclicality of lending?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    15. Araujo, Juliana & Patnam, Manasa & Popescu, Adina & Valencia, Fabian & Yao, Weijia, 2024. "Effects of macroprudential policy: Evidence from over 6000 estimates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    16. Kim, Soyoung & Mehrotra, Aaron, 2022. "Examining macroprudential policy and its macroeconomic effects – Some new evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    17. Ms. Juliana Dutra Araujo & Manasa Patnam & Ms. Adina Popescu & Mr. Fabian Valencia & Weijia Yao, 2020. "Effects of Macroprudential Policy: Evidence from Over 6,000 Estimates," IMF Working Papers 2020/067, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Jorge E. Galán & María Rodríguez Moreno, 2020. "At-risk measures and financial stability," Revista de Estabilidad Financiera, Banco de España, issue Autumn.
    19. Norring, Anni, 2022. "Taming the tides of capital: Review of capital controls and macroprudential policy in emerging economies," BoF Economics Review 1/2022, Bank of Finland.
    20. Tihana Škrinjarić, 2023. "Macroprudential stance assessment: problems of measurement, literature review and some comments for the case of Croatia," Working Papers 72, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Growth-at-risk; Growth distribution; Macrofinancial vulnerabilities; Macroprudential policy; Quantile regression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:eurase:v:13:y:2023:i:3:d:10.1007_s40822-023-00236-w. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.