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Fiscal Rules, Bailouts, and Reputation in Federal Governments

Author

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  • Alessandro Dovis
  • Rishabh Kirpalani

Abstract

Expectations of transfers by central governments incentivize overborrowing by local governments. In this paper, we ask if fiscal rules can reduce overborrowing if central governments cannot commit to enforce penalties when rules are violated. We study a model in which the central government's type is unknown and show that fiscal rules increase overborrowing if the central government's reputation is low. In contrast, fiscal rules are effective in lowering debt if the central government's reputation is high. Even when the central government's reputation is low, binding fiscal rules will arise in the equilibrium of a signaling game.

Suggested Citation

  • Alessandro Dovis & Rishabh Kirpalani, 2020. "Fiscal Rules, Bailouts, and Reputation in Federal Governments," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(3), pages 860-888, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:110:y:2020:i:3:p:860-88
    DOI: 10.1257/aer.20181432
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Miloš Krstić & José António Filipe & José Chavaglia, 2020. "Higher Education as a Determinant of the Competitiveness and Sustainable Development of an Economy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-22, August.
    2. Sean Dougherty & Pietrangelo Biase, 2021. "Who absorbs the shock? An analysis of the fiscal impact of the COVID-19 crisis on different levels of government," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 517-540, July.
    3. Arawatari, Ryo & Ono, Tetsuo, 2021. "Public debt rule breaking by time-inconsistent voters," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    4. Uchida, Yuki & Ono, Tetsuo, 2021. "Borrowing to finance public investment: a politico-economic analysis of fiscal rules," MPRA Paper 115844, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 31 Dec 2022.
    5. Chistoph Grosse-Steffen & Laura Pagenhardt & Malte Rieth, 2021. "Committed to Flexible Fiscal Rules," Working papers 854, Banque de France.
    6. Chen, Xiaodong & Mi, Haoming & Zhou, Peng, 2023. "Whether to decentralize and how to decentralize? The optimal fiscal federalism in an endogenous growth model," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2023/11, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    7. Díaz-Roldán Carmen & Filho Fernando Ferrari & da Silva Bichara Julimar, 2021. "Fiscal Rules in Economic Crisis: The Trade-off Between Consolidation and Recovery, from a European Perspective," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 15(1), pages 199-216, January.
    8. Niklas Potrafke, 2023. "The Economic Consequences of Fiscal Rules," CESifo Working Paper Series 10765, CESifo.
    9. Marina Halac & Pierre Yared, 2022. "Fiscal Rules and Discretion Under Limited Enforcement," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(5), pages 2093-2127, September.
    10. Fernando González & Diego Martínez-López, 2021. "El diseño de reglas fiscales en gobiernos subcentrales. El caso de España," Policy Papers 2021-01, FEDEA.
    11. Ryo Arawatari & Tetsuo Ono, 2023. "International coordination of debt rules with time‐inconsistent voters," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 25(1), pages 29-60, February.
    12. Mark Gradstein, 2022. "Government Bailout Funds: Balancing Rules and Discretion," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(1), pages 333-342, February.
    13. Bulent Guler & Yasin Kursat Onder & Temel Taskin, 2022. "Asymmetric Information and Sovereign Debt Disclosure," CAEPR Working Papers 2022-004 Classification-E, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    14. Mitchener, Kris & Trebesch, Christoph, 2021. "Sovereign Debt in the 21st Century: Looking Backward, Looking Forward," CEPR Discussion Papers 15935, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Kobielarz, M.L., 2023. "Bailout dynamics in a monetary union," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • H77 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - Intergovernmental Relations; Federalism
    • H81 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - Governmental Loans; Loan Guarantees; Credits; Grants; Bailouts

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