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The transmission of macroprudential policy in the tails: evidence from a narrative approach

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  • Lloyd, Simon
  • Fernández-Gallardo, Álvaro
  • Manuel, Ed

Abstract

We estimate the causal effects of macroprudential policies on the entire distribution of GDP growth for advanced European economies using a narrative-identification strategy in a quantile-regression framework. While macroprudential policy has near-zero effects on the centre of the GDP-growth distribution, tighter policy brings benefits by reducing the variance of future growth, significantly boosting the left tail while simultaneously reducing the right. Assessing a range of channels through which these effects materialise, we find that macroprudential policy particularly operates through ‘credit-at-risk’: it reduces the right tail of future credit growth, dampening booms, in turn reducing the likelihood of extreme GDP-growth outturns. JEL Classification: E32, E58, G28

Suggested Citation

  • Lloyd, Simon & Fernández-Gallardo, Álvaro & Manuel, Ed, 2023. "The transmission of macroprudential policy in the tails: evidence from a narrative approach," ESRB Working Paper Series 145, European Systemic Risk Board.
    • Handle: RePEc:srk:srkwps:2023145
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    growth-at-risk; macroprudential policy; narrative identification; quantile local projections;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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