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Debt overhang, rollover risk, and corporate investment: evidence from the European crisis

Author

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  • Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem
  • Laeven, Luc
  • Moreno, David

Abstract

We quantify the role of financial factors behind the sluggish post-crisis performance of European firms. We use a firm-bank-sovereign matched database to identify separate roles for firm and bank balance sheet weaknesses arising from changes in sovereign risk and aggregate demand conditions. We find that firms with higher debt levels and a higher share of short-term debt reduce their investment more after the crisis. This negative effect is stronger for firms linked to weak banks with exposures to sovereign risk, signifying increased rollover risk. These financial channels explain about 60% of the decline in aggregate corporate investment. JEL Classification: E32, E44, F34, F36, G32, E22

Suggested Citation

  • Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Laeven, Luc & Moreno, David, 2019. "Debt overhang, rollover risk, and corporate investment: evidence from the European crisis," Working Paper Series 2241, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20192241
    Note: 261593
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    bank-sovereign nexus; debt maturity; firm investment; rollover risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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