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Debt Overhang, Rollover Risk, and Corporate Investment: Evidence from the European Crisis

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  • Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem

Abstract

We quantify the role of financial factors behind the sluggish post-crisis performance of European firms. We use a firm-bank-sovereign matched database to identify separate roles for firm and bank balance sheet weaknesses arising from changes in sovereign risk and aggregate demand conditions. We find that firms with higher debt levels and a higher share of short-term debt reduce their investment more after the crisis. This negative effect is stronger for firms linked to weak banks with exposures to sovereign risk, signifying increased rollover risk. These financial channels explain about 60% of the decline in aggregate corporate investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem, 2018. "Debt Overhang, Rollover Risk, and Corporate Investment: Evidence from the European Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 13336, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13336
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Xavier Giroud & Holger M. Mueller, 2017. "Firm Leverage, Consumer Demand, and Employment Losses during the Great Recession," Working Papers 17-01, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
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    6. R. Matthew Darst & Ehraz Refayet, 2017. "A Model of Endogenous Debt Maturity with Heterogeneous Beliefs," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-057, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 01 Feb 2019.
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    11. Pablo Ottonello & Thomas Winberry, 2018. "Financial Heterogeneity and the Investment Channel of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 24221, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Joseph, Andreas & Kneer, Christiane & van Horen, Neeltje & Saleheen, Jumana, 2019. "All you need is cash: corporate cash holdings and investment after the financial crisis," Bank of England working papers 843, Bank of England.
    2. Ferri, Giovanni & Minetti, Raoul & Murro, Pierluigi, 2019. "Credit Relationships in the great trade collapse. Micro evidence from Europe," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
    3. Kolev, Atanas & Maurin, Laurent & Ségol, Matthieu, 2019. "What firms don't like about bank loans: New evidence from survey data," EIB Working Papers 2019/07, European Investment Bank (EIB).
    4. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem, 2018. "Leverage over the Life Cycle and Implications for Firm Growth and Shock Responsiveness," CEPR Discussion Papers 13337, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. James Cloyne & Clodomiro Ferreira & Maren Froemel & Paolo Surico, 2018. "Monetary Policy, Corporate Finance and Investment," NBER Working Papers 25366, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Altavilla, Carlo & Burlon, Lorenzo & Giannetti, Mariassunta & Holton, Sarah, 2019. "Is There a Zero Lower Bound? The Effects of Negative Policy Rates on Banks and Firms," CEPR Discussion Papers 14050, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Daniel Dejuán & Corinna Ghirelli, 2018. "Policy uncertainty and investment in Spain," Working Papers 1848, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    8. Alexandros Fakos & Plutarchos Sakellaris & Tiago Tavares, 2018. "Firm Investment During Large Crises: The role of Credit Conditions," 2018 Meeting Papers 1000, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bank-Sovereign Nexus; debt maturity; Firm Investment; Rollover Risk;

    JEL classification:

    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • F0 - International Economics - - General

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