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Vulnerable growth in the euro area: Measuring the financial conditions

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  • Figueres, Juan Manuel
  • Jarociński, Marek

Abstract

This paper examines which measures of financial conditions are informative about the tail risks to output growth in the euro area. The Composite Indicator of Systemic Stress (CISS) is more informative than indicators focusing on narrower segments of financial markets or their simple aggregation in the principal component. Conditionally on the CISS one can reproduce for the euro area the stylized facts known from the US, such as the strong negative correlation between conditional mean and conditional variance that generates stable upper quantiles and volatile lower quantiles of output growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Figueres, Juan Manuel & Jarociński, Marek, 2020. "Vulnerable growth in the euro area: Measuring the financial conditions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:191:y:2020:i:c:s016517652030104x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109126
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Giacomini, Raffaella & Komunjer, Ivana, 2005. "Evaluation and Combination of Conditional Quantile Forecasts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 416-431, October.
    2. Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
    3. Matheson, Troy D., 2012. "Financial conditions indexes for the United States and euro area," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(3), pages 441-446.
    4. Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Ricco & Thomas Hasenzagl, 2020. "Financial Variables as Predictors of Real Growth Vulnerability," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2020-06, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    5. Adrian, Tobias & Duarte, Fernando & Liang, Nellie & Zabczyk, Pawel, 2020. "Monetary and Macroprudential Policy with Endogenous Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 14435, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Simon Gilchrist & Benoit Mojon, 2018. "Credit Risk in the Euro Area," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(608), pages 118-158, February.
    7. Kremer, Manfred & Lo Duca, Marco & Holló, Dániel, 2012. "CISS - a composite indicator of systemic stress in the financial system," Working Paper Series 1426, European Central Bank.
    8. repec:ecb:ecbwps:20111426 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Simon Gilchrist & Benoit Mojon, 2018. "Credit Risk in the Euro Area," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(608), pages 118-158, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. De Santis, Roberto A. & Van der Veken, Wouter, 2020. "Macroeconomic risks across the globe due to the Spanish Flu," Working Paper Series 2466, European Central Bank.
    2. Milan Szabo, 2020. "Growth-at-Risk: Bayesian Approach," Working Papers 2020/3, Czech National Bank.
    3. De Santis, Roberto A. & Van der Veken, Wouter, 2020. "Forecasting macroeconomic risk in real time: Great and Covid-19 Recessions," Working Paper Series 2436, European Central Bank.
    4. Angelini, Elena & Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Zimic, Srečko & Damjanović, Milan, 2020. "ECB-BASIR: a primer on the macroeconomic implications of the Covid-19 pandemic," Working Paper Series 2431, European Central Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Downside risk; Macro-financial linkages; Quantile regression;

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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