IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ecb/ecbwps/20202458.html

Vulnerable growth in the Euro Area: Measuring the financial conditions

Author

Listed:
  • Figueres, Juan Manuel
  • Jarociński, Marek

Abstract

This paper examines which measures of financial conditions are informative about the tail risks to output growth in the euro area. The Composite Indicator of Systemic Stress (CISS) is more informative than indicators focusing on narrower segments of financial markets or their simple aggregation in the principal component. Conditionally on the CISS one can reproduce for the euro area the stylized facts known from the US, such as the strong negative correlation between conditional mean and conditional variance that generates stable upper quantiles and volatile lower quantiles of output growth. JEL Classification: C12, E37, E44

Suggested Citation

  • Figueres, Juan Manuel & Jarociński, Marek, 2020. "Vulnerable growth in the Euro Area: Measuring the financial conditions," Working Paper Series 2458, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20202458
    Note: 400529
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2458~849f0d9847.en.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Ricco & Thomas Hasenzagl, 2020. "Financial Variables as Predictors of Real Growth Vulnerability," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2020-06, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    2. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/4nn4ojjkth8qe9ci5b0hpu7ala is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Kremer, Manfred & Lo Duca, Marco & Holló, Dániel, 2012. "CISS - a composite indicator of systemic stress in the financial system," Working Paper Series 1426, European Central Bank.
    4. repec:ecb:ecbwps:20111426 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Simon Gilchrist & Benoit Mojon, 2018. "Credit Risk in the Euro Area," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(608), pages 118-158, February.
    6. Mr. Tobias Adrian & Fernando Duarte & Nellie Liang & Pawel Zabczyk, 2020. "Monetary and Macroprudential Policy with Endogenous Risk," IMF Working Papers 2020/236, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Adelchi Azzalini & Antonella Capitanio, 2003. "Distributions generated by perturbation of symmetry with emphasis on a multivariate skew t‐distribution," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 65(2), pages 367-389, May.
    8. Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
    9. Matheson, Troy D., 2012. "Financial conditions indexes for the United States and euro area," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(3), pages 441-446.
    10. Giacomini, Raffaella & Komunjer, Ivana, 2005. "Evaluation and Combination of Conditional Quantile Forecasts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 416-431, October.
    11. Tobias Adrian & Nina Boyarchenko & Domenico Giannone, 2019. "Vulnerable Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(4), pages 1263-1289, April.
    12. Sulkhan Chavleishvili & Simone Manganelli, 2024. "Forecasting and stress testing with quantile vector autoregression," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(1), pages 66-85, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gloria González‐Rivera & C. Vladimir Rodríguez‐Caballero & Esther Ruiz, 2024. "Expecting the unexpected: Stressed scenarios for economic growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(5), pages 926-942, August.
    2. Chuliá, Helena & Garrón, Ignacio & Uribe, Jorge M., 2024. "Daily growth at risk: Financial or real drivers? The answer is not always the same," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 762-776.
    3. Simone Arrigoni & Alina Bobasu & Fabrizio Venditti, 2022. "Measuring Financial Conditions using Equal Weights Combination," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 70(4), pages 668-697, December.
    4. Brownlees, Christian & Souza, André B.M., 2021. "Backtesting global Growth-at-Risk," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 312-330.
    5. Zhou, Yang, 2024. "Benefits and costs: The impact of capital control on growth-at-risk in China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    6. Sokol, Andrej, 2025. "Fan charts 2.0: Flexible forecast distributions with expert judgement," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 1148-1164.
    7. Lang, Jan Hannes & Rusnák, Marek & Greiwe, Moritz, 2023. "Medium-term growth-at-risk in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2808, European Central Bank.
    8. Falconio, Andrea & Manganelli, Simone, 2025. "Financial conditions, business cycle fluctuations and growth-at-risk," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    9. Hartwig, Benny & Meinerding, Christoph & Schüler, Yves S., 2021. "Identifying indicators of systemic risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    10. Todd E. Clark & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & Massimiliano Marcellino & Michael Pfarrhofer, 2023. "Tail Forecasting With Multivariate Bayesian Additive Regression Trees," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 64(3), pages 979-1022, August.
    11. Mai Dao & Lam Nguyen, 2025. "Variable selection in macroeconomic stress test: a Bayesian quantile regression approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 68(3), pages 1113-1169, March.
    12. De Santis, Roberto A. & Van der Veken, Wouter, 2020. "Forecasting macroeconomic risk in real time: Great and Covid-19 Recessions," Working Paper Series 2436, European Central Bank.
    13. Iseringhausen, Martin, 2024. "A time-varying skewness model for Growth-at-Risk," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 229-246.
    14. Alain Kabundi & Asithandile Mbelu, 2021. "Estimating a time-varying financial conditions index for South Africa," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(4), pages 1817-1844, April.
    15. Szendrei, Tibor & Varga, Katalin, 2023. "Revisiting vulnerable growth in the Euro Area: Identifying the role of financial conditions in the distribution," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    16. Ferrara, Laurent & Mogliani, Matteo & Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume, 2022. "High-frequency monitoring of growth at risk," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 582-595.
    17. Wang, Bo & Li, Haoran, 2021. "Downside risk, financial conditions and systemic risk in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    18. Adams, Patrick A. & Adrian, Tobias & Boyarchenko, Nina & Giannone, Domenico, 2021. "Forecasting macroeconomic risks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1173-1191.
    19. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Marcellino Massimiliano, 2020. "Nowcasting Tail Risks to Economic Activity with Many Indicators," Working Papers 20-13R2, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 22 Sep 2020.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20202458. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Official Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/emieude.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.