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Capital Flows in Risky Times: Risk-on Risk-off and Emerging Market Tail Risk

In: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2026

Author

Listed:
  • Anusha Chari
  • Karlye Dilts Stedman
  • Christian Lundblad

Abstract

This paper characterizes the implications of risk-on/risk-off shocks for emerging market capital flows and returns. We document that these shocks have important implications not only for the median of emerging markets flows and returns but also for the left tail. Further, while there are some differences in the effects across bond vs. equity markets and flows vs. asset returns, the effects associated with the worst realizations are generally larger than that on the median realization. We apply our methodology to the COVID-19 shock to examine the pattern of flow and return realizations: the sizable risk-off nature of this shock engenders reactions that reside deep in the left tail of most relevant emerging market quantities.
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Suggested Citation

  • Anusha Chari & Karlye Dilts Stedman & Christian Lundblad, 2026. "Capital Flows in Risky Times: Risk-on Risk-off and Emerging Market Tail Risk," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2026, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:15479
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    2. Eguren-Martin, Fernando & O'Neill, Cian & Sokol, Andrej & von dem Berge, Lukas, 2024. "Capital flows-at-risk: Push, pull and the role of policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    3. Richard Schmidt & Pinar Yesin, 2022. "The growing importance of investment funds in capital flows," Aussenwirtschaft, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, Swiss Institute for International Economics and Applied Economics Research, vol. 72(01), pages 1-40, December.
    4. Hale, Galina & Juvenal, Luciana, 2023. "External Balance Sheets and the COVID-19 Crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    5. Juvenal, Luciana & Petrella, Ivan, 2024. "Unveiling the dance of commodity prices and the global financial cycle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    6. Gelos, Gaston & Gornicka, Lucyna & Koepke, Robin & Sahay, Ratna & Sgherri, Silvia, 2022. "Capital flows at risk: Taming the ebbs and flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    7. Annamaria Crescenzio & Etienne Lepers, 2025. "Extreme Capital Flow Episodes From the Global Financial Crisis to COVID-19: An Exploration With Monthly Data," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 105-136, February.
    8. Forbes, Kristin & Friedrich, Christian & Reinhardt, Dennis, 2023. "Stress relief? Funding structures and resilience to the covid shock," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 47-81.
    9. Juvenal, Luciana & Petrella, Ivan, 2024. "Reprint of “Unveiling the dance of commodity prices and the global financial cycle”," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    10. Davis, J. Scott & van Wincoop, Eric, 2024. "A theory of capital flow retrenchment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    11. Chari, Anusha & Dilts-Stedman, Karlye & Forbes, Kristin, 2022. "Spillovers at the extremes: The macroprudential stance and vulnerability to the global financial cycle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    12. Filippou, Ilias & Gozluklu, Arie & Rozental, Hari, 2024. "ETF arbitrage and international diversification," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    13. Joshua Aizenman & Yin-Wong Cheung & Xingwang Qian, 2025. "International Reserve Management and Firm Investment in Emerging Market Economies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 503-540, April.
    14. Carrera, Jorge & Montes-Rojas, Gabriel & Toledo, Fernando, 2023. "Global financial cycle, commodity terms of trade and financial spreads in emerging markets and developing economies," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 179-190.
    15. Ahmed, Rashad, 2023. "Flights-to-safety and macroeconomic adjustment in emerging markets: The role of U.S. monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    16. Anusha Chari & Karlye Dilts Stedman & Christian T. Lundblad, 2024. "Risk-on/Risk-off: Measuring Shifts in Investor Sentiment," Research Working Paper RWP 24-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    17. Huang, Xiaowei & He, Chenyu & Zhang, Man, 2024. "Economic policy uncertainty and capital flows' tail risk in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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