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Pick Your Poison: The Choices and Consequences of Policy Responses to Crises

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  • Kristin J Forbes
  • Michael W Klein

Abstract

Countries choose different strategies when responding to crises. An important challenge in assessing the impact of these policies is selection bias with respect to relatively time-invariant country characteristics, as well as time-varying values of outcome variables and other policy choices. This paper addresses this challenge by using propensity-score matching to estimate how major reserve sales, large currency depreciations, substantial changes in policy interest rates, and increased controls on capital outflows affect real GDP growth, unemployment, and inflation during two periods marked by crises, 1997–2001 and 2007–11. We find that none of these policies yield significant improvements in growth, unemployment, and inflation. Instead, a large increase in interest rates and new capital controls are estimated to cause a significant decline in GDP growth. Sharp currency depreciations may raise GDP growth over time, but only with a lagged effect and after an initial contraction.

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  • Kristin J Forbes & Michael W Klein, 2015. "Pick Your Poison: The Choices and Consequences of Policy Responses to Crises," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 63(1), pages 197-237, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:pal:imfecr:v:63:y:2015:i:1:p:197-237
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    1. Forbes, Kristin & Fratzscher, Marcel & Straub, Roland, 2015. "Capital-flow management measures: What are they good for?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(S1), pages 76-97.
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    9. Forbes, Kristin J. & Warnock, Francis E., 2012. "Capital flow waves: Surges, stops, flight, and retrenchment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 235-251.
    10. Michael W. Klein & Jay C. Shambaugh, 2015. "Rounding the Corners of the Policy Trilemma: Sources of Monetary Policy Autonomy," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(4), pages 33-66, October.
    11. Joshua D. Angrist & Òscar Jordà & Guido M. Kuersteiner, 2018. "Semiparametric Estimates of Monetary Policy Effects: String Theory Revisited," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(3), pages 371-387, July.
    12. Carolyn Heinrich & Alessandro Maffioli & Gonzalo Vázquez, 2010. "A Primer for Applying Propensity-Score Matching," SPD Working Papers 1005, Inter-American Development Bank, Office of Strategic Planning and Development Effectiveness (SPD).
    13. Michael W. Klein, 2012. "Capital Controls: Gates versus Walls," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 43(2 (Fall)), pages 317-367.
    14. Levchenko, Andrei A. & Rancière, Romain & Thoenig, Mathias, 2009. "Growth and risk at the industry level: The real effects of financial liberalization," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 210-222, July.
    15. Michael Lechner, 2002. "Some practical issues in the evaluation of heterogeneous labour market programmes by matching methods," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 165(1), pages 59-82, February.
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    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Motivations for capital controls and their effectiveness
      by Ajay Shah in Ajay Shah's blog on 2016-04-05 12:38:00

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    Cited by:

    1. Balima, Hippolyte Weneyam, 2020. "Coups d’état and the cost of debt," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 509-528.
    2. Andrés Fernández & Michael W Klein & Alessandro Rebucci & Martin Schindler & Martín Uribe, 2016. "Capital Control Measures: A New Dataset," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(3), pages 548-574, August.
    3. Alessandro Rebucci & Chang Ma, 2019. "Capital Controls: A Survey of the New Literature," NBER Working Papers 26558, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Scott Davis, 2016. "Economic fundamentals and monetary policy autonomy," Globalization Institute Working Papers 267, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    5. J. Lawrence Broz & Maya J. Duru & Jeffry A. Frieden, 2016. "Policy Responses to Balance-of-Payments Crises: The Role of Elections," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 207-227, April.
    6. Luca Papi & Andrea F Presbitero & Alberto Zazzaro, 2015. "IMF Lending and Banking Crises," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 63(3), pages 644-691, November.
    7. Jonathan Scott Davis, 2017. "External debt and monetary policy autonomy," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República - ESPE, vol. 35(82), pages 53-63, April.
    8. J. Scott Davis & Michael B. Devereux & Changhua Yu, 2020. "Sudden Stops and Optimal Foreign Exchange Intervention," NBER Working Papers 28079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Kristin J. Forbes, 2020. "The International Aspects of Macroprudential Policy," NBER Working Papers 27698, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Chamon, Marcos & Garcia, Márcio & Souza, Laura, 2017. "FX interventions in Brazil: A synthetic control approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 157-168.
    11. Gelman, Maria & Jochem, Axel & Reitz, Stefan, 2016. "Transmission of global financial shocks to EMU member states: The role of monetary policy and national factors," Discussion Papers 23/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    12. Radhika Pandey & Gurnain Pasricha & Ila Patnaik & Ajay Shah, 2015. "Motivations for Capital Controls and Their Effectiveness," Staff Working Papers 15-5, Bank of Canada.
    13. Weneyam Hippolyte Balima & Jean-Louis Combes & Alexandru Minea, 2016. "Bond Markets Initiation and Tax Revenue Mobilization in Developing Countries," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 83(2), pages 550-572, October.
    14. Scott Davis & Andrei Zlate, 2017. "Monetary Policy Divergence, Net Capital Flows, and Exchange Rates: Accounting for Endogenous Policy Responses," Globalization Institute Working Papers 328, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    15. Scott Davis, J. & Zlate, Andrei, 2019. "Monetary policy divergence and net capital flows: Accounting for endogenous policy responses," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 15-31.
    16. Noth, Felix & Busch, Matias Ossandon, 2017. "Banking globalization, local lending, and labor market effects : Micro-level evidence from Brazil," BOFIT Discussion Papers 11/2017, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    17. repec:bdr:ensayo:v:35:y:2017:i:82:p:96-105 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Nihal Bayraktar, 2017. "Public Security Spending and Growth," EcoMod2017 10212, EcoMod.
    19. World Bank Group, 2016. "Global Economic Prospects, January 2016," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 23435, November.
    20. R. G Gelos & Lucyna Gornicka & Robin Koepke & Ratna Sahay & Silvia Sgherri, 2019. "Capital Flows at Risk: Taming the Ebbs and Flows," IMF Working Papers 19/279, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Hippolyte Weneyam Balima, 2020. "Coups d'état and the foreign exchange market," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(7), pages 1928-1950, July.

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    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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