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Causal Effects of Monetary Shocks: Semiparametric Conditional Independence Tests with a Multinomial Propensity Score

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  • Angrist, Joshua

    () (MIT)

  • Kuersteiner, Guido M.

    () (University of California, Davis)

Abstract

Macroeconomists have long been concerned with the causal effects of monetary policy. When the identification of causal effects is based on a selection-on-observables assumption, non-causality amounts to the conditional independence of outcomes and policy changes. This paper develops a semiparametric test for conditional independence in time series models linking a multinomial policy variable with unobserved potential outcomes. Our approach to conditional independence testing is motivated by earlier parametric tests, as in Romer and Romer (1989, 1994, 2004). The procedure developed here is semiparametric in the sense that we model the process determining the distribution of treatment – the policy propensity score – but leave the model for outcomes unspecified. A conceptual innovation is that we adapt the cross-sectional potential outcomes framework to a time series setting. This leads to a generalized definition of Sims (1980) causality. A technical contribution is the development of root-T consistent distribution-free inference methods for full conditional independence testing, appropriate for dependent data and allowing for first-step estimation of the propensity score.

Suggested Citation

  • Angrist, Joshua & Kuersteiner, Guido M., 2008. "Causal Effects of Monetary Shocks: Semiparametric Conditional Independence Tests with a Multinomial Propensity Score," IZA Discussion Papers 3606, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp3606
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Joshua D. Angrist & Òscar Jordà & Guido Kuersteiner, 2013. "Semiparametric Estimates of Monetary Policy Effects: String Theory Revisited," NBER Working Papers 19355, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Jean Lacroix & Pierre-Guillaume Méon & Khalid Sekkat, 2017. "Do democratic transitions attract foreign investors and how fast?," Working Papers CEB 17-006, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    3. Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2016. "Identifying The Effects Of Simultaneous Monetary Policy Shocks," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 34(2), pages 268-296, April.
    4. Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2016. "The Time for Austerity: Estimating the Average Treatment Effect of Fiscal Policy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 126(590), pages 219-255, February.
    5. Sokbae Lee & Yoon-Jae Whang, 2009. "Nonparametric tests of conditional treatment effects," CeMMAP working papers CWP36/09, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    6. Altavilla, Carlo & Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Nicoletti, Giulio, 2015. "Loan supply, credit markets and the euro area financial crisis," Working Paper Series 1861, European Central Bank.
    7. repec:eee:deveco:v:130:y:2018:i:c:p:203-223 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Hashem Pesaran, M. & Smith, Ron P., 2016. "Counterfactual analysis in macroeconometrics: An empirical investigation into the effects of quantitative easing," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 262-280.
    9. Michael L. Anderson, 2012. "The Benefits of College Athletic Success: An Application of the Propensity Score Design with Instrumental Variables," NBER Working Papers 18196, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Daron Acemoglu & Suresh Naidu & Pascual Restrepo & James A. Robinson, 2014. "Democracy Does Cause Growth," NBER Working Papers 20004, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Joshua Angrist & Miikka Rokkanen, 2012. "Wanna Get Away? RD Identification Away from the Cutoff," NBER Working Papers 18662, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Radhika Pandey & Gurnain Pasricha & Ila Patnaik & Ajay Shah, 2015. "Motivations for Capital Controls and Their Effectiveness," Staff Working Papers 15-5, Bank of Canada.
    13. Mauricio Villamizar, 2014. "Identifying the Effects of Simultaneous Monetary Policy Shocks. Fear of Floating under Inflation targeting," Borradores de Economia 835, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    14. Kristin Forbes & Marcel Fratzscher & Roland Straub, 2013. "Capital Controls and Macroprudential Measures: What Are They Good For?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1343, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    15. Susan Athey & Guido Imbens, 2016. "The Econometrics of Randomized Experiments," Papers 1607.00698, arXiv.org.
    16. Cafora, Alfonso & Romano, Antonio Angelo & Ronghi, Monica & Giuseppe, Scandurra, 2017. "Substituting fossil energy sources: the role of the climate funds and effects on the economic growth," MPRA Paper 82373, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary policy; propensity score; multinomial treatments; causality;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models

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